:: Govind Talwalkar

A memorable election, without the hype

By Govind Talwalkar

mr BaraCk Obama has won the presidential election and November 4, 2008 will remain the most memorable day. It might have been the most intensely and widely watched election campaign. For the first time pollsters proved to be correct, though with some exceptions as they predicted a close race.

Four years ago, nobody in their wildest dreams thought that an African-American would be elected the President of the United States. But the Americans did it. African-Americans got voting rights under Lyndon Johnson's regime and one of the member of the African-American community, in the course of 40 years, achieved what was thought to be impossible.

It was no wonder that the emotionally-charged crowd at the victory rally addressed by Mr Obama in Chicago on November 4 was overjoyed. The viewers could see that not only were the African-Americans in tears but so were all the whites, the Asians and the Hispanics. Rev Jesse Jackson too was weeping.

After Mr Obama's speech, the audience went wild and started singing and dancing. This was very striking to an Indian like me and I thought how marvellous it would be if in India also we could have such momentous celebration. But the very next moment I was dispirited as I remembered how our people are fighting with each other and irresponsible leaders, in and out of office, are stoking the fires. It is hypocritical on our part that we sing the praise of Mr Obama and congratulate the Americans, but at the same time indulge in linguistic chauvinism and resort to violence.

It is not that we alone are hypocritical, Europeans, especially, the Germans are no better. Mr Obama had more fans in Europe than in the US. But the French and Germans have not made the life of their minorities any better. Generations of the Turkish workers have been slogging in Germany but there is no prospect of them getting citizenship or even something like a green card. The race problem in France is acute.

However, some facts about the campaign and voting are worth remembering. One is that this was the most costly election. If the expenditure incurred by both the parties on primaries and the general campaign is calculated then the total amount would be more than $5 billion. Mr Obama's campaign managers claimed that they did not take donations from the big lobbyists but received help from small donors. But this is only half truth. The fact is that executives of big businesses and lobbyist from companies handsomely donated to the Obama campaign.

The social composition of voters is also noteworthy. One might think that Mr Obama, a Democrat, who campaigned as a so called non-elite, must have got the support of the lower middle income groups and John McCain, being a Republican and himself very rich, must have received votes from the upper classes. But it was the other way round - voters who earn $200,000 or more generally voted for Mr Obama, while Mr McCain got the support from those in the lower bracket.

Considering the publicity hype and long wait at the polling stations, the percentage of the voting should have been unprecedented. But strangely it was not so. According one estimate, 62.5 per cent of those who are eligible voted, while another estimate is 61 per cent. Even if the former estimate is correct it is less than that in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won. Mr Obama received 52.3 per cent of the votes, but Johnson got 61.1 per cent, the highest so far. Even senior Bush got 53.4 per cent. Much was made of the youth resurgence. It is true that young people attended Mr Obama's rallies in very large numbers. They joined as volunteers and the impression was created that they would appreciably swing the balance.

But those who know were sceptical about this youth power. They said that young people might have crowded the meetings, but when it comes to voting they might not turn up. This proved to be right as young under-30 voters made up just 18 per cent of the electorate, while at the time when Mr Bill Clinton fought the election the percentage of the young electorate was 21 per cent.

This year's presidential campaign brought down stalwarts from both the parties. They thought their experience was sufficient. But long time in Washington proved to be a liability and Mr Obama gained by not being in Washington for many years. He could gain because the Bush administration was broken and the Congress was dysfunctional.

In fact, in the last eight or so years almost all the institutions have failed. Scandals of several politicians were exposed and big industrialists and CEOs cheated and looted people. When Ronald Reagan campaigned, he used to ask only one question and that was whether his audience felt that they were better off than they were four years before. This time Mr Obama did the same. He asked people whether they wanted the policies of the Bush administration to continue.

With increasing unemployment, rising cost of living and a broken educational system, the answer was inevitable and clear. The last straw was the tsunami in financial markets and the foreclosures which made hundreds of thousands homeless. So it became a referendum on the Bush administration and not only the Democrats but even several Republicans voted for Mr Obama.

Economy was the deciding factor. Otherwise, Mr McCain was not far behind Mr Obama in the opinion polls for a long time. But the market crashed on September 15 and nobody could help Mr McCain as his economic policies were not any different from those of Mr Bush. People rejected them.

Mr Bush was surrounded by neocons who are social reactionaries at home and imperialists abroad. They advocated supremacy of the US power and were bent on policing the world. This resulted in Mr Bush indulging in unilateralism and making enemies all around.

Mr McCain was all the while talking of America's strength and was issuing threats not only to Iran, but even called for the ouster of Russia from G-8 because of what happened in Georgia. American voters are fed up with this sabre rattling and so turned their back on Mr McCain.

A word of caution. No doubt, Mr Obama's victory has changed the political map of America. But the publicity hype has roused high hopes not only in the US but also abroad. But given the economic difficulties and the huge financial burden, nobody will be able to achieve much.