:: Govind Talwalkar

Decline and fall of BJP, Shiv Sena

By Govind Talwalkar

Oct 27 : Both the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been on the decline for the past 10 years and their defeat in the Maharashtra Assembly elections was inevitable. This defeat is glaring given the lacklustre performance of the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) ministries for the whole decade.

The deterioration of the BJP started with Lal Krishna Advani leading the party. The Shiv Sena’s decline was heralded by Uddhav Thackeray’s appointment as the executive president of the Shiv Sena. His cousin Raj Thackeray’s revolt made all the difference. The Assembly elections have proved to be a body blow. Nobody will be surprised if an exodus from the Shiv Sena begins.

It is convenient for BJP and Shiv Sena leaders to hold Raj Thackeray responsible for their miserable performance but the fact remains that a lack of leadership has plagued them. It is not only Uddhav Thackeray who could not manage his party but Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari of the BJP also made a mess at the state level. Pramod Mahajan was not a leader but a fixer. These two are neither leaders nor fixers..

The quarrel between the Thackeray cousins is personal and not about principles. The Shiv Sena had become a family concern and as brothers or relatives fall out in the corporate sector, the same thing happened in the Shiv Sena. Raj Thackeray had blamed the Shiv Sena for neglecting the interests of the Marathi people and their language, but it was he who enjoyed the limelight and privileges for a good part of the party’s existence.

He is much more brash and as these days such brashness and rabblerousing are paying, he has won 13 seats in the election, defeating the Shiv Sena candidates in some Sena strongholds. The Shiv Sena has lost Mumbai, where it was founded. As both the cousins fell out over personal ambition and gains Raj took up the path of extreme chauvinism and accused the Shiv Sena of betraying the cause. Uddhav immediately changed track and, in a bid to outdo Raj, stated that all trains from North India bringing labourers should be sent back. Both Uddhav and Raj did not explain what to do with the trains from the North India bringing wheat and groundnut oil from Gujarat.

In the degraded political climate in Maharashtra such emotional trash has given Raj some success which has been extolled by the media — both print and electronic. They expected a miracle from Uddhav but now they have found a new messiah in Raj.

The Lok Sabha election has indicated that voters in general are inclined to prefer the Congress and were fed up with the antics of several parties. They have some faith in the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi. Speaking about Maharashtra, voters were not amused by the daily mudslinging by the Thackeray cousins, though some newspapers relished it. Voters also had lost confidence in the BJP’s national and state leaderships. The forecasters who were confident of the ruling front’s defeat in the rural areas forgot that the government paid more than the minimum support price for cotton and increased the prices of other produce.

This time the Congress and the NCP do not have to depend upon the so-called Independents as they have has achieved the magical figure of 144 seats. Even if, as is usual with the Congress, the new ministry might get involved in internecine feuds and some might threaten to defect, the ministry would have ample scope to draw on those who are rebels in their respective parties.

The Congress and the NCP have done well in some regions of the state but not all. Both the parties did badly in Vidarbha, but scored well in Marathwada. The NCP lost ground in Pune, which was thought to be its citadel.

This comfortable position of the front might generate complacency. But it should not be blind to the fact that the voters picked this front because they had a poor choice. This is a vote by reluctance, and not of enthusiasm or conviction. That a dozen ministers and half-a-dozen ministers of state have lost their seats is proof enough of the miserable performance of the last two ministries.

People have seen that the two parties in the ruling front have always been at loggerheads. There was no such thing as collective responsibility. Ministers only cared for their own constituencies, and not the whole state. At least, two of the disgruntled were absorbed in dislodging the chief minister only to get into his chair. Fiscal discipline has been given a go-by for some decades.

There was a time when the cooperative sector enjoyed pride of place. Now it is a burden on the state.

The cooperatives’ overdues have piled up, including of those controlled by ministers or their relatives. Several ministers shamelessly used their authority to salvage bankrupt cooperatives, like banks, sugar factories and milk societies, by emptying the treasury.

The state is lagging behind in the development of infrastructure. The electricity shortage is chronic. Education from the primary level till university is in poor shape. Himachal Pradesh could boast of 100 per cent female literacy but Maharashtra’s record is woeful.

A thorough clean-up of both parties is overdue. Some time ago a newspaper reported that Rahul Gandhi has a scheme to effect a change. Maharashtra would certainly welcome such a move. But the immediate fear is that numerous relatives of Congress and the NCP leaders would be crowded into the Cabinet and nepotism would be officially recognised. But both parties should learn a lesson from the recent results, which saw the exit of a dozen ministers. If that is not done the ruling coalition will be wiped out in the next election.

The state is under siege by builders, the land mafia and bureaucrats. So affordable housing is a thing of the past. Because of these fat cats, young people might one day create a serious situation.

In the ’70s, because of the CPI(M)’s suicidal policy of condoning the violent activities of their cadres, business and industry in Bengal moved out of that state.

If the Maharashtra government adopts the same policies regarding those who would take the law into their hands and carry out a vendetta against any group or community, then whatever happened in Bengal will be repeated in Maharashtra. Raising hell in or outside the Assembly has no place in a parliamentary democracy.

The Congress-led front might have won a majority, but the people are apprehensive about the future.