Why BJP would prefer a TMC win

The BJP, which has locked horns with the Trinamul Congress in the ongoing Assembly polls, would prefer a Mamata Banerjee-led government in West Bengal rather than a Left-Congress dispensation. The calculation is simple. A Left-Congress dispensation would trigger politics of confrontation between the state and the Centre while the saffronites expect a Mamata-led government to extend a hand of cooperation to the Modi government.

Politically, while Ms Mamata Banerjee will continue to remain a regional player, a powerful Left-Congress combination could emerge as a major challenge to the Modi-led BJP at the national level.

Aware that the BJP was in no position to form a government, saffron strategists were trying hard to retain its 17-per-cent vote share. It was argued that if the BJP could retain its vote share, it would eventually “benefit” the TMC. A breach in the saffron vote share would make the contest “tight” for the Trinamul Congress, as per saffron calculations.

The BJP was also of the opinion that Ms Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress, reeling under a string of scams and cases, would maintain a “friendly” and “working relationship” with the Centre. That the Centre has been going soft on Ms Banerjee was evident from its lack of urgency in stepping on the gas on the Saradha and Narada scams and the Burdwan blast case. The Saradha scam had virtually reached Ms Banerjee’s doorstep. The other “advantage” of having Ms Banerjee at the helm of Bengal affairs was that by the end of her five-year-run she would be considerably “weakened” as her strength was expected to fall. After the elections, the Modi government would continue to maintain “friendly” relations with Ms Banerjee as the government needs her “support” in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP continues to struggle for numbers. The TMC has 12 MPs in the Rajya Sabha.

Before the Assembly polls, the “Modi-Mamata bonhomie” had not only provided the Opposition ammunition for attack but had also upset the state BJP in Bengal. It may be recalled that during the first half of the Budget Session the TMC did not support a Left-Congress-sponsored amendment to the motion of thanks on the President’s Address in the Rajya Sabha.

The Opposition has also been talking of “new year bonhomie” between “Modi and Mamata”. The Prime Minister had tweeted: “Received very touching New Year greetings from @MamataOfficial ji & that too in Gujarati! I thank Mamata Didi & wish her a great 2016”

Ms Banerjee had replied: “Glad you liked the New Year greetings I sent you in Gujarati. Thanks too @narendramodi ji for the greetings you sent me in Bengali.” Interestingly, this exchange of greetings came when the BJP and TMC were at each other’s throat over the violence in Malda.

Resurgence of the Left and Congress at the national level could make the BJP’s return to power in 2019 somewhat difficult. BJP spin doctors are closely watching the Congress high command and, regardless of the bravados and attempts to ridicule the Gandhis, the BJP is in no mood to take them lightly. The Congress, which clocked a poor 19.3 per cent vote share during the last Lok Sabha polls, is also playing the game of coalition politics to the hilt by latching on to regional satraps. Talking about the BJP victory in the Lok Sabha polls, a saffron strategist pointed out that winning big in the general election with only 31 per cent vote share “goes to show how fragmented the voting was”. With the possibility of a grand alliance against the BJP at the national level in the 2019 general election, there could be less fragmentation and the possibility of votes splitting various ways would become virtually nil, he observed.