Yet too far from a federal front

The presence of a clutch of regional leaders, among them two chief ministers, at West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s swearing-in ceremony in Kolkata on Friday has predictably led to speculation of the formation of a so-called federal front to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha election of 2019.

If politics were so strait-jacketed and schematic, life would be much simpler for all concerned. That is why the leaders of different hues present in Kolkata, including Ms Banerjee, skilfully demurred when asked if Bengal was likely to present India’s next Prime Minister, impliedly backed by those present at the Trinamul Congress leader’s coronation.

When one week is a long time in politics, as a British leader of an earlier generation famously said, three years — when the next parliamentary poll is due — is way too long. In any case, in Kolkata a stalwart like Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalithaa — who alone among the state leaders who recently faced state polls successfully reversed a long-term trend pertaining to anti-incumbency — was not present.

What can be said, however, is that senior politicians engage in diplomacy all the time, and Kolkata provided a perfect, peaceful occasion. Each of the top regional leaders present would strive for one another’s support, should the dice appear to turn in their favour. Much would depend on the Lok Sabha results of the parties in play.

Provided the bloc of regional parties is larger than single parties like the incumbent BJP and the Congress, the only so-called national party in contention other than the BJP, the state satrapies would likely lean forward for support from both the BJP and the Congress. A consensus on the name of the Prime Minister would have to be arrived at, and no guess made now can be realistic.

The process is both tricky and painful, and we have been there before. There was blood on the carpet when Morarji Desai was named PM, leading the just formed Janata Party, which at no time lost its essential flavour of being a coalition rather than a united whole. The same was the case when V.P. Singh was named PM. Proceedings were a shade more civilised when H.D. Deve Gowda and Inder Gujral became PM, but the tension was palpable. It is extremely likely that a regional leader would need the backing of one of the two national parties — and support comes tied to conditions.

How strong the BJP is likely to be before the Lok Sabha election will be clearer after the state polls in UP and Punjab next year. The Congress is extremely vulnerable at this stage, but strange things happen in politics. The fate of all parties could hinge on success at alliance-making. Kolkata showed no more than an attempt at just that.