Amid SP family battle, the future is uncertain

The maudlin Samajwadi Party drama in Lucknow right through Monday was depressing as it was a reminder of the fragility of our democracy which, in many instances, seems to depend so gravely on the health of family units of caste sardars of Northern India and their association with the outside world. A good deal of the dissonance in UP’s ruling family — that, alas, is co-terminous with the state’s ruling party — appears to centre on maverick politician Amar Singh, who is outside the family of SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The SP founder’s chief minister son Akhilesh regards Mr Singh as the source of all the trouble in the SP while Mulayam himself and his brother Shivpal have taken Mr Singh into their bosom. Their love for this external element seems to run so deep that Mulayam’s cousin Ram Gopal Yadav, the SP’s resident intellectual and for long its de facto leader in New Delhi’s political circuit, was on Sunday expelled for six years by Mulayam for taking the CM’s side in the war against Amar Singh.

The fight within the top family and intra-SP war erupted just a few months before the crucial UP Assembly polls. It is this which imparts a special meaning to the current goings-on in Lucknow.

How long will it take for the issue to be settled Will the SP eventually split If this is to be avoided, then on what terms, and who will benefit the most from the way the resolution is achieved These are elements of the same leading question. On the answer to it will depend the political dynamics to emerge from the present extremely fluid situation.

Realignments in the state’s political universe look extremely likely in the present circumstances, but their nature and character are apt to be shaped by the way in which the fight within the SP is settled. In turn, these factors will influence the result of the Assembly election.

Two contradictory trends surfaced from the chaotic goings-on at the SP meeting in Lucknow, where the entire dramatis personae, with the exception of Amar Singh and Ram Gopal Yadav, took part passionately.

One, the CM at this moment seems to enjoy the support of the overwhelming backing of his party’s MLAs. This suggests that toppling him may not be easy — either by a move initiated by Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal, or the ambitious BJP through the President’s Rule route. Two, if the SP remains intact, the power to give candidates tickets to contest the polls will lie in Shivpal’s hand, and not in the chief minister’s.

How will patriarch Mulayam, who is desperate to keep his legacy by ensuring the party’s unity, resolve the tussle for power that emanates from having two major centres of authority