Age Debate: Moody’s warning is a wakeup call for the NDA

The commentary of Moody’s expressing concerns on India’s outlook from rising intolerance is definitely not an over-reaction.

Government seems to be dismissive of such protests and alerts, labelling them as rabid opponents of the Bharatiya Janata Party and limited to Lutyen’s Delhi. Some have also contended that since there is little evidence of large scale social disorder, media has exaggerated isolated incidents.

The problem with the views justifying the government stance or ignoring the writing on the wall is that it is more often the case that dissent of eminent people gets highlighted. But it does not preclude the dissent from the masses that does not get highlighted, but surfaces after elections.

The problem comes after one and a half years of the new government which Indian voted to power in a presidential style election, with the BJP projecting Mr Modi has a transformational leader who is the sole purveyor of “Achhe Din”, good governance and “minimum government, maximum governance”. In the context of intensifying pressure on delivering on poll promises, attempts of elements within the government to polarise can create the impression of evasiveness.

Even if we take the point that Moody’s and the intellegentsia’s remarks are exaggerated, the damage negative publicity of rising intolerance can make in the international arena can be far reaching on both economic and political levels. This is especially so because Mr Modi has invested a lot of time and energy drawing the attention of global leaders on him and on the Indian nation.

Clearly the adverse commentary of Moody’s and adversarial coverage on India, even if through isolated incidents, will impact the global sentiment and denouement of bigger goals of the Indian government like “Make in India”, “Start-up India, Stand up India”, inclusive growth — “Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas” etc.

The bigger story, however, is that these developments are coming in the wake of increasing stridency of political opposition to the Mr Modi and the National Democratic Alliance-led government. The pullback on the land acquisition amendment bill, obfuscation on passage of the GST bill, worsening conditions of the agrarian economy and lack of job creation are probably providing fodder for the Opposition parties to consolidate. Hence, the evolving situation could pose challenges to the government in arriving at a consensus on critical reforms, thereby narrowing the window of opportunity for the government to deliver on its promises.

Why should this be concerning In my view, erosion of the robust image of the Modi government as the purveyor of development and growth, having the potential to transform India in the pattern of Gujarat model, can induce a severe dent in the financial markets.

It is on the back of this tall image that global and domestic investors pushed up the Indian benchmark stock indices by over 40 per cent since the formation of the Modi government in 2014. Ahead of that, the markets gained nearly 10 per cent in the second half of 2013 in response to BJP-led government taking charge in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and in Punjab, even if through alliance.

Quite clearly, the premium the markets have been crediting the Modi government with has started to mellow with a correction of over 10 per cent from the peak.

Dhananjay Sinha is head, Institutional Research, Economist and Strategist, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

$Moody’s did not overreact

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I am a bit surprised to read the comment of Moody’s Analytics on the subject of intolerance. Its advice to the Narendra Modi government is certainly a case of overstepping its authority.

There appears to be politics involved in returning of the Sahitya Akademi award. Till date 1,004 writers have got Sahitya Akademi Award, out of which 25 writers have spoken of returning the award. Of which only eight have actually written to the Akademi about returning the award while the rest have just spoken to news channels. Only three writers have returned the Rs 1 lakh cheque which they had received along with the award.

According to the writers, communal harmony has been impaired since the National Democratic Alliance came to power.

Now the question is why were the awards not returned in 2013, after Narendra Dabholkar was assassinated

From 2009 to 2015, 4,346 incidents of communal violence took place. Sixty-three people lost their lives in 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. Seventy-seven people died in 2012 riots in Assam and 2,800 Sikhs died in the 1984 riots. Ninety-five per cent Kashmiri Pandits were forced to leave Kashmir in 1990.

Are these writers differentiating between the riots Have they suddenly become negative towards riots or is there something else

The political party that is leading the subject of intolerance was ruling both the Centre and the state during the murder of Dabholkar. And Karnataka scholar M.M. Kalburgi was murdered. Why no one came forward to return the award

In 1989, Bhagalpur riots took place where Kashmiri Pandits were massacred. Then there were 1993 riots and Mumbai blasts. Sixty-five men, women and children were burnt alive in Sabarmati Express in 2002.

Since then, many massacres and terrorist activities have occurred, like bombings in Mumbai, a terror attack at the Akshardham Temple in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, in 2002, there were two fidayeen attacks in 2002 on the Raghunath Temple in Jammu, the 2006 Varanasi bombing at Sankat Mochan temple, 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks. Yet, none of the writers came forward to return their Akademi award then.

Also, when we say “Save the Tiger” then it’s a social service. If we say “save the dogs” then we are termed as animal lovers. But if we say “save the cow”, then how do we become zealots

In the past, the people of India have questioned the integrity of media and its role in building opinions. According to me, the subject of intolerance is due to the hype created by the media. Those writers who have returned their awards are not known through their work in public eye. Thus, giving them importance is an irresponsible act.

Political parties in question have picked up from where media started acting in chorus.

The rating agency definitely has another objective. Their advice to government is irrelevant unless they are concerned that if the government is toppled under social unrest, it could lead to derailment of reforms and that could seriously affect the prospects of the country.

Also, can it be due to the fact that the Modi government has affected some of the vested interests by stopping the import of defence items has affected global suppliers and their trades under “Make In India” projects. This surely demands an investigation.

Deven R. Choksey is managing director, K.R. Choksey Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd

$Intolerance is media hype

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