BJP to gain by split in Muslim vote

Drass: Had Asgar Ali Karbalai, a social leader of Kargil, not joined the fray, it would have been a smooth sailing for Sajjad Hussain alias Sajjad Kargali, an Independent who is in the running for Ladakh’s single Lok Sabha, said local watchers.

Mr Hussain decided to fight his maiden election after various religious and social organisations in Kargil district assured him of their full support.

In the 2014 elections, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Thupstan Chhewang had won from here with a narrow margin of 36 votes from his nearest rival Ghulam Raza, a Congress rebel who was fighting the election as an Independent. Chhewang polled 31,111 votes, while Raza got 31,075.

The second runner-up was Syed Muhammad Kazim, also an Independent, who got 28,234 votes whereas the Congress candidate Tsering Samphel had finished fourth after securing 26,402 votes.

As per the 2011 census, Ladakh’s population is split roughly in half between the districts of Leh and Kargil. Muslims (mostly Shia) comprise 76.87 per cent of Kargil’s population of 1,40,802 while 66.40 per cent of Leh’s population of 133,487 is Buddhist.

Out of 174, 618 registered voters of the Ladakh constituency, 87,781 are in Kargil and the remaining 86,837 are in Leh. The constituency is spread over four Assembly segments.

Mr Hussain and those rendering support to him were expecting split the Buddhist vote between the BJP and Congress candidates, which would have made his victory this election almost certain. But the presence of Mr Karbalai, who is seen by many as a Congress proxy, has paved the way for the division of Muslim votes.

Keep yourself updated on Lok Sabha Elections 2019 with our round-the-clock coverage -- breaking news, updates, analyses etc all. Happy reading.