K.C. Singh | Dem Win In Congress Alters Path Of US Policy

The 2026 US midterm elections were expected to negatively impact the Republican Party, due to President Donald Trump’s disruptive policies. The outcome, however, became an electoral tornado, with the House and the Senate passing into the hands of Democrats. Additionally, even the gubernatorial contests favoured the Democrats.

President Trump, on the eve of the polls, instructed his supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. Facing a rout he switched his position, claiming he “wasn’t on the ballot and if I was, we would have won in a landslide”. However, he allayed rising concern about him questioning the election result, saying he would accept the outcome.

The constitutional implications of the Republicans losing control of the Congress are clear. Democrats can now veto the government’s nominees for ministerial, judicial or other posts. By occupying the chairs of sensitive committees they can institute enquiries, summon officials, etc., Democrats also get to shape the legislative agenda, including overseeing governmental spending and President Trump-designed projects, especially those impacting historical buildings, like the under-construction White House ballroom. Democrats would also try rectifying the Trump administration’s tampering with the Obama-era healthcare under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Almost 7,60,000 enrollees face name-deletion. Another 4,20,000 are being investigated for fraud.

President Donald Trump’s irrationally high tariffs, unilaterally imposed, and joining Israel to launch armed hostilities against Iran on February 29 clearly caused the current global energy crisis, resulting also in higher energy and living costs in the US. The Iranian resilience in bearing the air attacks while retaliating with drones and missiles has created a military standoff. Iran has also extensively damaged the assets and military facilities of the US and its allies in the Gulf region, besides seizing control of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Vice-president J.D. Vance took to social media immediately to analyze the rout of Republicans. Quoting an analyst, whose private advice he claims proved correct, he listed four necessary policy changes. These are: “1) End the war; 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation; 3) Put America First; 4) Change our relationship to Israel.” There is increasing consensus that the Iran war caused the escalation of oil price and the cost of living in the US. The vice-president, of course, underplayed the role of the physical targeting of suspected illegal immigrants by masked agents of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). A shift in the Hispanic votes can be traced to this policy.

With 54 or even 55/56 senate seats and over 250 members in the House, the Democrats achieved unprecedented success. They scored victories in traditionally pro-Republican states like Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas and Kansas. President Trump now faces a lame-duck presidency with likely inquiries into conflicts of interest as the current US Congress ignored the business dealings of Trump, his family and close associates.

The question, in the US and global minds, is whether President Trump will modify the weaponisation of tariffs, end the Iran war, modify the alliance with Israel and so on. Three past Presidents, who suffered midterm setbacks, immediately addressed the issues in play. Presidents Ronald Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010, encountered similar defeat but recovered the lost space two years later. President Donald Trump, so far, has not shown the sensibility to modify policies when confronting negative outcomes. However, as the 2028 presidential election approaches, even candidates like J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio would have to start distancing themselves from President Trump’s highly personalised policy making and family-centred nepotism.

The impact abroad may take a different form. Historically, the US Presidents, when facing domestic political constriction, turn to diplomacy to safeguard their legacy. President Bill Clinton spent 2000, his last year in office, resolving the Palestinian issue. He held the Camp David Summit in July 2000, where Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat negotiated for 13 days. Despite the Second Intifada in September, he made a final bid for peace in December.

President Donald Trump confronts a more complicated situation. He has threatened escalating the Iran war, including dropping nuclear weapons to destroy Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear enrichment facility. But Israeli elections have dismantled the ruling alliance of PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Gadi Eisenkot, the likely Opposition prime ministerial candidate, would need to moderate Zionism, requiring the tacit support of the 19-member Arab groups. Though Mr Netanyahu may still prefer re-commencing the war with Iran to disrupt Opposition’s government formation, will Mr Trump ignore the end-the-war message the US voters have broadcast? Iran has warned of unmitigated regional chaos if war is resumed.

China and Russia would also be assessing their options. Reportedly, Russia warned that if nuclear weapons were used against Iran, they may do likewise against Ukraine. President Trump is hosting the G-20 summit in December in Florida. Its success depends on the two wars in Ukraine and the Gulf not escalating or, ideally, ending. A Trump-Xi summit is also due before the G-20. President Trump would now find more assertive foreign counterparts as the Democrat-controlled Congress may control his weaponising of tariffs, as indeed the funding of Israeli and US military actions.

Having suffered two years of trade uncertainty and diplomatic pinpricks, India, too, can seek a better trade-deal and normalised diplomacy with the US. However, when dealing with an egotistical and irrational leader caution remains in play. There is the additional danger of the Congress extracting more Epstein papers from the US department of Justice with uncertain global political consequences. The US Congress will launch enquiries into the Trump family’s misuse of influence to benefit financially. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, going alone to negotiate Venezuelan crude supply to the Ambani refinery in Gujarat, with profits allegedly directed to an upcoming refinery in the US, raises questions about its diplomatic propriety.

Thus, the two election results in Israel and the US open up new opportunities for peace and regional stability as well as fresh risks. With India having suffered US pinpricks and inflexibility, Chinese nibbling at the Arunachal Pradesh border, Pakistani regrouping with Mecca Pact and Bangladeshi pressure on Sheikh Hasina, Indian diplomacy requires new gusto and assertiveness.