Abhijit Bhattacharyya | Persian Lesson: Can US & Iran Find A Way Out?

When the United States and Israel jointly launched their airstrikes on Iran on February 28, did they consult or inform even a single Western or Asian partner in the vicinity of the conflict? Did President Donald Trump take his countrymen, colleagues or Opposition leaders into confidence or prepare them for the possible fallout? The answer is a clear “No”. This ill-advised move has come to haunt both Mr Trump and Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu as their reckless attack hasn’t yielded the desired results. Yes, Iran has been battered and bloodied, and some of its top leadership killed. Yet, Tehran fights back, and the unexpected fury of its counter-attacks has widened the conflict to the Gulf Arab sheikhdoms, including Saudi Arabia.

The US and Israel hoped to bring Iran to its knees with an air offensive alone, as the terrain is highly unsuitable for a Second World War-style Normandy-type landing on the Persian Gulf’s beaches. Iran is mostly a plateau: “the Castile of the Near East”, in the words of Princeton University historian Peter Brown. It is to the Middle East what the vast land mass of Russia was to European invaders of past centuries. Persia was the ancient world’s first superpower, with a civilisation at par with the Indus Valley of India and China’s Hwang Ho.

The United States, a nation of immigrants, will be 250 years old on July 4 this year, while Israel was born 78 years ago. These two, representing the West, are trying to maul Iran, whose civilisation precedes the Persian polymath Omar Khayyam.

Monday’s last-minute backtracking by President Trump may be a signal that some realisation has finally dawned in Washington that carpet bombing by the US and Israel alone won’t lead to an Iranian surrender. Boots on the ground will also result in unimaginable fatalities. The seagoing approach too appears fraught with unanticipated and invisible dangers.

What actually happened to non-stop carpet-bombing? Perhaps, it could have worked, but for Iran’s sudden switch to embrace Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”: “All warfare is based on deceptions”. Thus, as Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu used expensive and expansive air power, Iran opened a totally unexpected front in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia, where American soldiers and military forces are based and which supply oil and gas projects to the entire world.

To make matters worse for the West, Tehran adroitly closed the sole, shallow and narrow water passage of the Strait of Hormuz, thereby completely disrupting the global flow of oil. That delivered an unexpectedly humiliating blow to the aggressors of Iran, as they cut a sorry figure before their vassal-like client states of Asia, and the worldwide flow of oil came to a virtual halt. From Tokyo to Taiwan, London to Lisbon, all were stunned as a desperate Mr Trump demanded that Europe and Asia come forward as “partners” to help the US Navy reopen the Hormuz Strait.

The strangest of Mr Trump’s threats was his open declaration that he would decimate Kharg Island, from where the bulk of Iran’s oil exports take place, just for “fun”. Does this behove the leader of what is now the world’s sole superpower? Compare the US President’s shallowness with the 2,500-year-old eternal wisdom of Chinese soldier-scholar Sun Tzu: “War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It’s mandatory that it be thoroughly studied.”

It’s hardly surprising the US President is losing his credibility even with his own allies, who collectively declined to join the US-Israel campaign against Iran. All major Nato countries responded with an emphatic “No” when asked to join the US Navy in reopening the Hormuz Strait. “We are not party to the conflict. France will never take part,” said Emmanuel Macron. “UK will not join US-Israel war on Iran,” said Britain’s Keir Starmer. “This is not our war, we haven’t started it”, said the German defence minister. “This war on Iran is outside the scope of international law”, warned Italy’s Giorgio Meloni. This flat refusal by his allies seems to have made the US President go berserk; which is not a good sign.

None of Mr Trump’s aides or advisers quite dare give any sane counsel to their boss. With good reason, and given his past actions, they don’t want to be publicly snubbed, admonished or even dismissed on the spot. Till a few months ago, Mr Trump was going all out in a bid to win the elusive Nobel Peace Prize. Now peace is forgotten, and he is actively trying to wipe out an ancient Asian civilisation.

Air power alone, as mentioned earlier, cannot force Iran to surrender. Even if Tehran faces a major setback, it will haunt Jews across the Levant for years, though some Sunni Muslim nations were also adversely affected by the present war. One can only hope that it does not lead to another religious crusade that can last for decades, if not longer.

Contextually, the Americans today need to re-learn the lesson of naval history. The Persian Gulf is no Pacific Ocean, with which the US Navy is familiar, owing to various decisive battles with legendary Japanese Navy Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto during the 1940s. “Iran dominates the whole Persian Gulf, from Shatt-al-Arab on the Iraq border to Hormuz Strait 615 miles away”. Because of its bays, inlets, coves, islands -- excellent places for hiding suicide-bent, tanker-ramming speedboats, Iran can emerge as a very dangerous foe for large ships and aircraft-carriers deployed to the Persian Gulf.

The Persian Navy faced a catastrophic naval defeat in the Battle of Salamis in 480 BC. The strategy of Themistocles (of Athens) was to engage the full-strength Persian armada by luring it deep inside the confined waters of a narrow Greek strait. That led to the inevitable: the Persian Navy of Xerxes was decisively beaten back from Greek waters. Too many powerful ships in a narrow waterway met their Waterloo, long before the actual land Waterloo of the nineteenth century.

India too should not needlessly alienate Iran. Tehran and Delhi share a lot of history, culture, language, tradition and fraternity over thousands of years. Persian was India’s court (official) language till 1858. These lines are inscribed at Delhi’s Red Fort: “Agar Firdaus Bar Ru-yi Zamin Ast, Hamin Ast, u Hamin, Ast, u, Hamin Ast” (If on Earth there be an Eden of bliss, it is this, it is this, and nothing but this). Which foreign culture or language has praised India in such lavish and glowing terms?

The writer is an alumnus of the National Defence College, New Delhi. The views expressed here are personal.