Mr Trump has resolved to keep the war going for two to three weeks at least when he believes more of the stated military objectives like stripping Iran of the power to assemble missiles and bombs are achieved
US President Donald Trump will stay on the warpath until he believes a moment arrives which may convince the world that he has annihilated Iran’s military and its nuclear bomb making capabilities. The world will pay a very heavy price for this braggadocio as oil and gas prices will rise exponentially, especially if Iran pursues extreme options in the asymmetrical war that it is waging already by interfering with shipping in the Red Sea waterway, too, through its proxy in the Houthis of Yemen.
Mr Trump has resolved to keep the war going for two to three weeks at least when he believes more of the stated military objectives like stripping Iran of the power to assemble missiles and bombs are achieved. This is war mongering at its most extreme, the underlying logic of all modern wars since World War II lasting for years rather than weeks or months unlikely to convince anyone that this Iran war is anything but an illegal and needless one.
Towards pursuing war goals further into a second month, Mr Trump is abandoning US’s European allies and Asia by leaving the Strait of Hormuz problem to them to sort out by going to “the Strait and just take it” rather than strive to keep the crucial waterway open for the rest of the world to get around a fifth of its oil and gas. He may not have followed through on his threat to abandon Nato yet, but he has given sufficient indication that the US is no more interested in being the trusted protector.
It is up to the world now to face the worst effects of America’s ‘Epic fury’ as economic growth is threatened even as inflation leaps along with oil prices but with the movement of goods also impeded, disrupting supply chains, the scenario is depressing. It is no more fanciful that crude may zoom to near $200 a barrel, sinking many an economy with the sheer weight of dependence on energy sources in West Asia to keep the wheels of economy moving.
Iran may have been desperate in its self-defence to try and snare the rest of the Gulf into the war, aiming indiscriminately at targets in about 12 nations though they may have had little to do with the war save in self-preservation against a nation that has harboured hate against Israel and US. But what options does that country have when its leaders have died in targeted killings and its military infrastructure bombed?
It is curious that anti-war sentiment is boiling over as protests gather in the US as well as Europe, but then this is only history repeating itself as American interventions everywhere, beginning with Vietnam in the 1960s, had invariably drawn such opposition. Its global policeman role and its eternal quest of regime change in countries far away has invariably invited opprobrium.
Buffer stocks in oil in global shipping pipelines are drying up. Fertiliser supply has shrivelled even as planting seasons are coming up in both hemispheres. Grocery and food inflation is ready to skyrocket while raw material shortages in production of plastics, etc., is affecting commerce. Future shocks may boggle the imagination while Mr Trump, more confused over whether he needs to keep this foolish war going than in starting it, pursues indistinct aims.
American bombers will pound Iran even as its missiles and drones threaten all its neighbouring states. Markets may tumble but, more significantly, confidence in a rules-based world order, which was not doing badly until the likes of Mr Vladimir Putin and Mr Trump, not to mention Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, let loose the dogs of war.
