The results will be politically significant, too. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are some of the very few states that have kept the saffron forays in check till now. West Bengal’s political history of the last four or five decades were determined by the Congress and the Communists
The elections to the four state Assemblies and a Union territory should have normally passed off creating only a minor ripple in the national scene but the results in the elections to the Assemblies of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will come with added significance.
Post-poll violence was of great concern and consequence in West Bengal last time. Several lives were lost in the villages in political clashes between the winning Trinamul Congress and the BJP; there were reports of BJP workers fleeing their villages fearing for their lives. The Union government and the Election Commission appear to have determined not to allow a repeat of that this time around. It is reported that approximately 70,000 troops from the Central paramilitary forces will be deployed in the state this time to ensure that troublemakers are kept in check. The troops are also reported to be around even after a new government takes over. The Union government has in the meanwhile reportedly extended the tenure of the director-general of police of the state by another six months. The Union government may have its logic behind these decisions but questions on how long it can continue to operate without taking the state government into confidence on the issue of law and order and how constitutionally sound these decisions are, after all, will be raised in due course.
The results will be politically significant, too. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are some of the very few states that have kept the saffron forays in check till now. West Bengal’s political history of the last four or five decades were determined by the Congress and the Communists; both the players have now been marginalised beyond reckoning; today’s Bengal is a battleground between the Trinamul Congress which carries the legacy of the Congress and the BJP. The saffron forces have unleashed determined efforts to break into the Bengal fort. A win for the BJP in Bengal will change the politics of the country forever as it will weaken the Opposition beyond recognition.
Tamil Nadu’s politics is in for a surprise for the first time in decades if the nascent Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam of actor-politician Vijay can make a mark by its arrival on the state’s political scene. Most political parties in the state have conceded that the new party has held sway over a section of the people, especially the youth; some exit polls have also confirmed the trend. Who Mr Vijay will train his guns on will be interesting to watch. DMK chief minister M.K. Stalin and his challenger from the AIADMK Edappadi K. Palaniswami had hoped to decide the state’s politics between them, but the dramatic entry of the actor has caused some disruption for sure. The BJP, which has carefully cultivated allies in difficult terrain before it makes a meaningful challenge to the main players, may also get it wrong if the actor walks away with the NDA’s vote share, as indicated by some exit polls.
Kerala will create history if it returns the incumbent LDF for a third consecutive term as the state often follows a revolving door policy every five years, the second term for the communists in 2021 being in fact an aberration. The Congress-led UDF has, buoyed by the exit polls, got back to its favourite game of infighting even before the election results are out. The Congress’ national leadership will have to put to use all its negotiation skills to install a government in the state should the people decide to call back it from political wilderness after 10 years.
Taken together, the results will be critical for all the major stakeholders in national politics: the BJP, the Congress, the communists, the DMK and the Trinamul Congress.
