The verdict is a sharp rap on the BJP’s knuckles, after the party had waffled about who would be the CM if the NDA won
The 202-seat victory for the National Democratic Alliance in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections is a gift of the people to Nitish Kumar, a mass leader in the old tradition of socialist principles, of whom he is the last survivor. It is as much a tribute as it is an endorsement of the man who helmed Bihar for 20 years and given him his tenth stint as chief minister, a position that is no longer a matter of cutting a deal with the BJP.
The verdict is a sharp rap on the BJP’s knuckles, after the party had waffled about who would be the CM if the NDA won. The masses exerted enough pressure before polling began on November 6 to make it necessary for the BJP to eat crow and announce that Nitish Kumar would continue as chief minister, instead of postponing the decision after the results were out. Out of a total 243 seats in the Assembly, the Janata Dal (United) won 85 seats and the BJP won 89 seats.
The massive wave of support, which benefited the BJP more than the JD(U) in terms of seats, does not mean there is no discontent with the outgoing government; it does not mean it was a “pro-incumbency” election in the sense of support for the NDA’s policies and governance. Disappointment with the NDA and Nitish Kumar’s governance remains, but the endorsement reflects the respect, affection and trust the people have for him.
Contradictory as this sounds, the truth is Bihar’s people and politics are unique and natural to the place. The support for Nitish Kumar is like a grand send-off to the last of the socialists and the eldest statesman in Bihar politics. The 2025 Assembly election is as historic as it may turn out to be watershed.
The next generation of Bihar’s leaders have been shortlisted: Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, whose party has performed abysmally, and Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party, who confirmed an uncanny ability to convert his limited share of seats into wins, with a tally of 22 seats out of 29 he was given in the NDA’s distribution of constituencies. After years of playing second fiddle to Nitish Kumar, the BJP’s dreams of leading a coalition and forming the government with its own CM choice have been trashed. By itself, the BJP was told, it cannot expect to lead Bihar.
Through the years Bihar was ruled by the Congress, the state’s leadership was never subservient to the high command. The Congress was in power in the state, but it was a party that was politically and culturally Bihari. It would be wise for the BJP to learn from the 2025 results that its aspirations must be tailored to fit the culture of the place.
The NDA’s victory and the rise in the BJP’s number of seats, compared with the 2020 election, reflect better management and stronger organisation in ensuring the mobilisation by Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi, as the star campaigners, was channelised into votes. It’s also a vote of expectations; that the Modi government will fulfil its promise to invest Rs 62,000 crores in Bihar’s development, creating jobs and opportunities for Bihari graduates and school dropouts, women and girls. It’s a vote for the “double engine sarkar” model and keeping suspicions in abeyance in the belief that the Modi government will do what it has promised.
That there was a trust gap and it mattered in terms of voter decision-making was obvious. In violation of the Model Code of Conduct, the Nitish Kumar government knowingly announced the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana and rolled out the Rs 10,000 per adult woman cash handout to set up enterprises benefiting over 75 lakh women. The unprincipled move made jointly by the Nitish Kumar government and the Centre was politically necessary: it seems to assure Bihar’s women and voters that the “double engine sarkar” model would live up to its promises. Transactional as this was, it paid off in the strong returns as the election results show.
Women and youth, as the early analysis reveals, voted for the JD(U) and NDA. Over the years, Nitish Kumar has assiduously nurtured women voters, starting from the time he distributed cycles to school-going girl students and then scooters as they crossed the threshold of school and entered tertiary education. He banned liquor and made it a women’s issue, sacrificing excise collections for a social purpose. Women have returned what they received from Nitish Kumar by voting for him in this election. Contrary to expectations, Bihar’s youth also voted for Nitish Kumar and the NDA, though as a constituency by age, youth have been most vocal in articulating their discontent over bad governance, missed job opportunities, recruitment scandals and joblessness. They have scoffed, on social media, at construction of temples and temple towns instead of productive investment with sustainable tenured jobs.
The failure of Tejashwi Yadav, the Congress and other INDIA bloc partners in consolidating the enthusiasm of the youth into votes is an indictment against how the coalition failed to transform itself into a viable challenger and potential alternative. The fault is largely with the Congress, which in its arrogance and foolish estimates of its own popularity after Rahul Gandhi’s Vote Adhikar Yatra, alienated its partners, sent across a message that it was as supercilious as it was an upstart, albeit of politically aristocratic lineage who had vaunting ambitions and weak leadership and organisation. Instead of playing second in tow, the Congress tried to step over the RJD and indulged in an obnoxious campaign to undermine the abilities of Tejashwi Yadav and trash his legacy and party.
As a regional party and a regional leader Tejashwi Yadav has to build his future, because in the next election for the Assembly, it is probable he will have to fight to claim his place as the man of the match against another young leader, Chirag Paswan. They will both have their work cut out with the BJP in different ways; Chirag Paswan to establish himself as son of the soil and natural heir to Nitish Kumar’s mantle as the chief ministerial choice of the NDA and Tejashwi Yadav as his challenger.
How well the NDA and Nitish Kumar work in the next five years to deliver on promises will be interesting to track. More interesting will be the popular response to what the new government does, and how it functions, because docility is not natural to Bihar.
