China immediately made demarches in all capitals, except India, seeking its cancellation
The 11th foreign ministers’ meeting of the four-country Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) took place in New Delhi on May 26. The group — consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the United States — was conceived in 2007, mainly due to the then Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. I, as the additional secretary (international relations) in the ministry of external affairs, had represented India at its first meeting in August 2007 in Manila, on the sidelines of the 14th Asean Regional Forum (ARF) foreign ministers’ meeting.
China immediately made demarches in all capitals, except India, seeking its cancellation. It quite correctly assumed that soft containment of China was the group’s primary, unstated objective. But members had varying levels of commitment to that objective. India, under the UPA government, was reluctant to unduly provoke China. The Bush administration in the US too dithered, assuming that the Chinese would help control North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Australia, then led by Prime Minister John Howard of the conservative Liberal Party, played along. But the Prime Ministers of Japan and Australia lost power in September and December 2007, months after the Quad’s birth.
The new Australian Labour Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, was a Sinologist fluent in Mandarin. Assuming that China could be diplomatically handled, he abandoned the Quad. In Japan, Mr Abe’s successor reacted similarly. A decade later, in 2017, the group re-engaged at the ministerial level. Domestic political changes in Australia, India and Japan facilitated it. Mr Shinzo Abe was re-elected in 2012 and the Liberals ousted the Labour Party in Australia in 2015. In the US, President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016. In India, the BJP had been ruling since 2014. Finally, in March 2021, the group was elevated to the heads-of-government level. Thus, the domestic politics of the member states and international developments impact the group’s functioning.
The Quad now faces new international factors. First, the global disruption caused by President Donald Trump’s arbitrary tariffs, imposed in February 2025. He ignored whether the targeted nation was an ally, a friend or a rival. Finally, the US-Israel axis militarily attacked Iran, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, besides many of his senior military and civilian aides. Iranian resilience and retaliatory perseverance created an impasse, disrupting energy supplies and trade. India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman calls it the “3F” dilemma, affecting fuel, fertilisers and foreign exchange.
Fundamentally, the Quad’s founding rested on the China factor. However, the Trump administration shifted the focus to its differences with its NATO allies, even raising issues such as the forcible annexation of Greenland, and its Iran war. President Donald Trump eventually visited Beijing earlier this month for his summit with President Xi Jinping.
His obsequious manner did not radiate any desire to contain China. America’s claimed achievements were not confirmed by China. Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese said the US under Donald Trump was “playing a different role”, shifting global dynamics. Australia has been engaging France, Canada and Japan to create an alliance of the so-called “middle powers”. Australia also wonders about the effectiveness of its alliance with the UK and US, called AUKUS. The three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines that the US promised to supply Australia are still unavailable.
Despite the surface bonhomie of India-US relations, hurdles linger. The bilateral trade deal is missing and President Trump continues to woo Pakistan and its Army chief, Field Marshal Asif Munir, for their peace-making efforts in the Iran conflict.
Finally, by positioning China as its main rival in a new bipolar order, the US downgraded India and undermined the rationale behind the Quad’s creation. The theatrical video call by President Trump, amidst the US ambassador’s dinner for visiting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and India’s announcement of buying $500 billion of US products over the next five years, cannot conceal the growing one-sidedness of US-India ties.
The joint statement that followed the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting covers diverse subjects, with China, though unnamed, being the motivating factor. It begins by emphasising the rule of law and the sanctity of sovereignty and territorial integrity. A “free and open” Indo-Pacific is reiterated, besides sea lanes that must remain open to facilitate supply chains for fuel, food and fertilisers. UNCLOS, the international treaty on the laws of the sea, which the US ignored signing, is recalled to underscore freedom-of-navigation challenges in the Middle East and the East and South China Seas. The denuclearisation of North Korea and the necessity of enforcing UN Security Council resolutions are emphasised. The centrality of Asean in stabilising the Indo-Pacific region is noted.
The joint statement has four sub-themes. The first is “Maritime and Transnational Security”, covering real-time information sharing under the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). The condemnation of the Pahalgam attack on April 22, 2025, is listed here.
The second is “Economic Prosperity and Security”. It refers to economic coercion, non-market policies and arbitrary export restrictions, especially regarding critical minerals. The target is China, while the US-caused global trade disruption is ignored. The diversification of supply chains is recommended. A “Quad Critical Minerals Framework” has been created to enable this. Also envisaged is a “Quad Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security”, involving outreach to the Pacific Islands Forum and a commitment to provide all islands cable connectivity by 2026.
This counters Chinese attempts to penetrate the huge maritime sector traditionally dominated by Japan.
The third element is “Critical and Emerging Technology”, suggesting “open and interoperable architectures” for 5G, 6G and AI. For this, “sound technical standards” are demanded. The “full technology stack” includes critical minerals and advanced manufacturing, computing, semiconductors and related sectors. India and the US also signed an agreement to cooperate in the rare earths field.
As per the International Energy Agency’s 2026 report, global rare earth reserves country-wise are: China 44%; Brazil 21%; India 7.2%; Australia 6.3%; Russia 3.8%; Vietnam 3.5%; and the US 1.9%. Clearly, the BRICS countries — Brazil, China, India and Russia — hold most reserves. The India-US agreement is thus more about obtaining technology and investment, if not also appeasing the US President.
The final element covered is “Humanitarian Assistance and Emergency Response”. In fact, the four members offered just this during the 2004 tsunami. Some see that as generating the Quad’s conception.
In conclusion, while the foreign ministers’ meeting is keeping the Quad alive, America’s altered global perspective under President Donald Trump has weakened the original objective of an alliance of major democracies in the Indo-Pacific seeking to contain China through soft power.
