Indranil Banerjie | Trump On Rampage: For US, Costs Are Piling Up

US President Donald Trump has emerged as the single most disruptive force in American and world politics. Like many strong leaders of the past, he wishes to shape the world according to his personal vision, using raw power. Unrestrained by considerations of ideology, ethics or costs, he is redrawing political and strategic equations by the use of force, economic coercion and intimidation. The bigger question is whether the tactics of yesteryears will work in today’s complex and far more evolved world.

There was a time not so long ago in history that the exercise of raw power offered immediate and overwhelming rewards. The Portuguese sailed into the Indian Ocean towards the fag end of the 15th century and proceeded to displace the Arabs, and every other maritime and littoral power, with unprecedented ferocity, thereby ensuring for themselves an unchallenged writ over the eastern oceans for well over a century. They were only ousted by the British more than a century later, who used similar uncompromising power to reduce the Portuguese to a shambles and took over the world’s oceans for themselves. Unabashed power worked in geopolitics as well as in domestic situations.

Napoleon Bonaparte was among the most prominent world rulers to demonstrate that unbridled power could force political outcomes, and provide legitimacy sans consent. The notion that power and not ideology could determine political outcomes was further reinforced by Otto von Bismarck, the “Iron Chancellor” of Prussia. Their strategy worked -- Napoleon created the largest French empire in history while Bismarck unified Germany but at a terrible cost -- a quarter million deaths due to Bismarck’s wars and an estimated seven million soldiers and civilians dead in the pursuit of Napoleon’s quest for power. Great powers could do as they wished and leaders who believed in the strength of raw power usually prevailed. President Trump seems to have taken a page from their philosophy. But the costs are rapidly piling up, and outcomes looking increasingly ambiguous.

Perhaps the worst affected by his policies is America itself. Having vowed to clear the country of the menace of unchecked and rampant illegal immigration, the President decided to unleash military force to tackle the problem. Soldiers patrolling the streets of American cities seemed to confirm the worst nightmares of citizens who now found themselves in a dystopian world as predicted by doomsday visionaries.

Thousands were pulled out of their homes, arrested and untold numbers deported. When ordinary Americans began to protest, they found themselves becoming the targets of Mr Trump’s soldiers. Many of these Americans are those who supported anti-immigration policies aimed at removing the estimated 11 million illegals in the country, but found the tactics to resolve it reprehensible.

President Trump had warned before his election that illegal immigrants “will be removed as fast as they come in”, without specifying how exactly this would be done.

Outrage erupted following the killings of two innocent US citizens -- Alex Pretti and Renee Good -- by federal agents this month. In the rising political storm that followed, even many Republicans and former supporters of President Trump were concerned. A number of officials spearheading the anti-immigration drive, including US homeland security secretary Kristi Noem and Border Patrol “commander at large” Gregory Bovino, instantly became national villains.

Driven to the wall, President Trump said his administration was “going to de-escalate a little bit”. Television news channels, quoting sources in the White House, however, felt it was a turning point and that the goal was to scale back and eventually pull out. The most worrying aspect was the emergence of an organised opposition to Mr Trump's anti-immigration drive, which some officials have termed as “terrorism”.

The American geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko wrote: “Never before has there been such a modern, tech-savvy, and locally popular insurgency in a US metropolis. The goal is to neutralise the federal government’s authority in Minneapolis, which could lead to a domino effect in other metropolises if this insurgent network replicates its by-then successful campaign there too.” He claims that the unrest in Minneapolis should be considered an insurgency, led and coordinated by highly tech-savvy citizen opponents of actions by Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol (BP) agents. He feels that “there’s no doubt this campaign is professionally coordinated at a level far beyond anything hitherto seen in the US...”

This is alarming, if true. At another level, American politicians can sense a groundswell against the President’s policies and many analysts predict that Mr Trump and his party could face a rout in the next mid-terms scheduled for November this year. And anti-immigration is not the only reason. The good times promised by President Trump are yet to materialise and the US dollar, like consumer confidence, have hit historic lows. The currency has lost more than 10 per cent of its value since Mr Trump took office for a second time and, according to a Reuters report, consumer confidence has "slumped to the lowest level in more than 11-1/2 years in January amid mounting anxiety over a sluggish labour market and high prices, which could see households becoming more cautious about spending”.

In foreign affairs too, President Trump's boasts about being the Big Daddy of the world does not seem to be materialising. His promise to end the Ukraine war within days of moving into the White House has proved to be a washout and the bullying of his European allies has sent them scurrying to clinch new alliances around the world, including with arch-enemy China.

Venezuela might have lost its President but the country has not quite fallen into Mr Trump’s pocket and US oil companies are anything but thrilled about “taking over” that country’s oil sector. Canada, once the closest US ally, now talks about a rupture in the world order and is busy finding new friends. Greenland finds a new predator while Europe recoils in horror. An American armada is moving threateningly towards Iran with no clear objectives and the possibility of a nightmare war that could change the Middle East forever.

If Donald Trump indeed wished to be another Bonaparte or Bismarck, he might have got it all wrong. Power is much more diffused in today’s world, and awareness is all pervading. Moreover, American power is long past its peak. Big Daddy could end up like another Humpty Dumpty if he doesn’t get off the wall.