Sunil Gatade | Plumping For Modi In 2029: Naidu’s Gamble

We are living in interesting times. At a time when chips are down for Narendra Modi, his foe-turned-friend N. Chandrababu Naidu has come out backing the PM for the fourth term, sending the message that this time he is no longer the kingmaker in the NDA like during Atal Behari Vajpayee’s time but one ‘dutiful’ ally doing his bit to boost up the alliance.

The Andhra Pradesh CM’s sudden act of declaring Mr Modi as the next PM after the 2029 polls is intended to keep the BJP in good humour, knowing full well that the Prime Minister is the most unpredictable person politically and could swing things either way for him in Andhra Pradesh.

Like the PM, Mr Naidu, 76, has crossed the 75 mark and wants time to stabilise the TDP rule. More prominently, to settle his son Nara Lokesh politically. The fear of the future is making Mr Naidu bend over backwards.

Mr Naidu’s gesture is also aimed at sending a message to the world’s largest party that he is its most prominent backer in the South among the non-BJP parties in the NDA, a region that has remained a difficult one to crack for the saffron outfit.

The sudden emergence of actor Vijay’s TVK in Tamil Nadu and the Congress’ easy victory in Kerala polls, coupled with the grand old party appearing to be settling in power in Karnataka, have brought fresh challenges to Mr Modi and home minister Amit Shah in the South.

What is worrying for the opposition is that the surprise action of Naidu indicates that the BJP has “pocketed” the AP CM like it did Nitish Kumar earlier.

Both the leaders, once leading figures of the Opposition and detractors of Mr Modi, have been “plucked by the BJP like ripe fruits”.

In fact, both the TDP chief and the JD-U supremo look like willing comrades of the BJP. It appears that they have realised the nuisance value and destructive power of the “bulldozer BJP”. “If you can’t beat them, join them” looks like the strategy of a hapless Naidu as well as Kumar.

Mr Kumar was some time ago “persuaded” to resign as the Bihar CM by a resurgent BJP, which installed its own man, Samrat Chaudhary, in his place.

It was a sort of bloodless coup performed by Mr Modi and Mr Shah, as Mr Kumar, dubbed “Paltu Ram” by his detractors, frequently changed sides to remain the CM for a record 20 years.

Mr Kumar has been ailing for some time and has failed to install an effective second line of leadership in his party. Despite him being brought to the Rajya Sabha, the JD-U chief has so far remained a “mauni baba”, realising that silence is golden in these ticklish times.

It also means that Mr Modi, knowing the worth of each person, has taken “ample care” of both these non-BJP leaders, willingly forcing them to fall in line.

The politics of Andhra Pradesh has been revolving around Mr Naidu and his arch-detractor, N. Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSRCP, for the past decade. Earlier, it saw a tussle for power between Mr Naidu and the late Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, who was in the Congress. He is the father of Jagan Mohan, who parted ways with the Congress and marginalised the party since his departure.

Though Jagan Mohan’s sister is the state Congress chief, she has not been able to make any inroads in the Opposition space to establish the Congress.

Chandrababu wants to complete his term without any trouble, which could pave the way for his son to succeed him. He cannot be friendly with the Congress for obvious reasons, while a credible alternative to the BJP-led front is impossible without the Congress. Therefore, the kingmaker of a third front has no options but to remain with the BJP bandwagon.

The ease with which Mr Modi has ruled since the last Lok Sabha polls despite failing to get a majority for the BJP is due to the fact that he has taken sufficient care of both Mr Naidu and Mr Kumar without making much ado about anything.

Opposition claims after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls that the two leaders would play their game and make Modi uncomfortable at the drop of a hat not only were belied, but they also turned out to be extra-loyalists.

On their part, TDP and JD(U) had no option but to back Mr Modi, as the Opposition did not have the numbers to form the govt even if they joined the opposition camp. Besides. the TMC and AAP were not ready to back a Congress PM.

Right or wrong, the talk in political circles is that Mr Naidu is facing an anti-incumbency even before his half-term is over. He also wants to ensure that the BJP remains on his side and does not overtly or covertly help Jagan Mohan.

Mr Naidu’s other worry is the growing ambition of the Jana Sena chief and his deputy CM Pawan Kalyan, the actor-turned-politician who was instrumental in formulating the BJP-JSP-TDP alliance in the 2024 polls that toppled the Jagan Mohan Reddy regime. There have been reports of a rift between the two leaders over the seat-sharing in the local body polls.

When Jagan Mohan was the CM, he had put Mr Naidu in jail in one case of alleged corruption. Political observers believe that it was not possible without an apparent green signal from the Centre.

The million-dollar question in the current political situation is whether Mr Naidu would have played so much on the front foot for Mr Modi if the results of the bypolls in Bankipur in Bihar and Datia in Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP has faced jolts, were known as well as the extent of political damage it has suffered in the wake of the Jantar Mantar protests.