Pavan K. Varma | After A Year Of Confusion, India Faces Hard Decisions

There are two ways of looking at the year gone by: One, to mechanically highlight its main events, and two, to evaluate them, pick out the most relevant, and see what needs to be done in the coming year.

To my mind, 2025 will be remembered for five central issues — questions regarding the independence and impartiality of the electoral process; the air crisis across India and, in particular, in the national capital Delhi and the adjoining regions; the turmoil in our neighbourhood, especially, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan; the turbulence in India-American relations due to the mercurial shenanigans of Donald Trump; and the continued disequilibrium in our overall democratic structure due to the absence of an organised Opposition.

The way in which the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise was carried out in Bihar, and now in the whole country, leaves much to be desired. The right of the Election Commission of India (ECI) to ensure the integrity of the polling list, is not questionable. However, the manner in which it carries out this responsibility, is. There is a growing perception that the exercise lacks adequate transparency. This, in turn, is a consequence of the even greater — and more justified — perception that the ECI is less than autonomous as per the Constitutional scheme of things.

Genuine democracies ensure that the conduct of elections between competing political parties is impartial and uniformly applicable to all stakeholders. For this, an independent ECI is mandatory. For the ECI to be so, it is necessary that its apex leadership, the chief election commissioner (CEC) and the two election commissioners, are strictly neutral, and not in any way deferential to the ruling party’s interests. If faith in this belief is shaken, elections themselves will lose legitimacy. 2025 has issued a warning in this regard. 2026 must make necessary correctives.

The unending air crisis in 2025 which has led north India gasping and Delhi residents choking, has made citizens ask: Why is this a recurring issue every year? Even more importantly, people want to know why the government does not take concrete steps to tackle this malaise, even though it is known what the terrible human toll is, especially for the less privileged? To see a government so helpless and paralyzed in the face of an annual calamity, with no mid or long-term solutions announced or enforced, creates the impression that those who rule act only where votes are involved. In the absence of an organised fightback by citizens impacting voting choices, governments just wait for the annual crisis to blow over. But 2025 has signaled that people are saying: enough is enough. 2026 is the year they may ask for accountability, and the government must act effectively.

On the international front, the Gen Z revolt, first in Nepal, and then in Bangladesh, seems to have taken the government unawares, and facilitated the malevolent intentions of China and Pakistan to isolate India. In Bangladesh, especially, our inability to warn a close ally like Sheikh Hasina of the growing unpopularity of her authoritarian rule is a failure of diplomacy. It appears we erred in putting all our eggs in her basket, without keeping lines open to the Opposition. Equally, our inability to assess the degree of Pakistan’s covert involvement in funding and encouraging the extreme right wing Jamaat-e-Islami party, and anti-India elements, was glaring.

In Pakistan, in spite of the befitting reply given by Operation Sindoor, the rise of the fundamentalist Gen. Asim Munir, is a matter of concern. His internal consolidation of power has coincided with the relative international rehabilitation of Pakistan, with the Field Marshal dining with Trump, courting the Saudis, and tangoing with China. This might embolden Munir’s unconcealed hostility to India, using the well-tested instrument of terrorism. The arc of alignment against India, between Pakistan, China and now possibly Bangladesh, requires exceptional vigilance on our part.

2025 also revealed that our trust in Trump was misplaced. The surface bonhomie between him and Prime Minister Modi, which we touted as a diplomatic achievement, was flagrantly belied. On some issues, such as our continued purchase of oil from Russia, we largely stood our ground. Our renewed overtures to Putin, also helped to counter balance Trump’s gratuitous aggression. However, my view is that we were unnecessarily muted in the face of Trump’s blatant tariff partisanship. India should make publicly clear in future to any foreign interlocutor that we cannot be bullied or taken for granted. China stood up to Trump’s bluster, and now Trump talks about a G-2, comprising America and China.

Lastly, even though it is a difficult task, we can only hope that 2026 will see a more cohesive and electorally efficient national Opposition. Thus far, the Congress shows no signs of reinventing itself. Moreover, the collapse of its organisational strength is in inverse proportion to the growing grass roots strength of the BJP. Many parties in the INDIA alliance are strong in their own regional/state fiefdoms, but have little or no pan-India presence. Moreover, the Opposition bloc is hardly a model of unity or coordinated action. In such a state of affairs, the mechanisms inherent in a democracy to hold the government accountable are feeble, and almost never sustained or organised efficiently across the country. When the ruling party has an overwhelming majority in the Lok Sabha, and a managed majority in Rajya Sabha, a weak Opposition is a serious lacuna. The greatest onus to rectify matters rests on the Congress, the largest Opposition party. Will it rise to the challenge in 2026? And will the rest of the Opposition also understand, that if each of its constituents don’t band together on crucial issues, it is only the ruling party that will have its way by default.

A year end, and the dawn of a new year, is a time for celebration. But it should also be a time for introspection. In the evolution of countries, years upon years may pile up, but some are watershed milestones requiring strong decision-making and decisive correctives. With national elections due in 2029, 2026 could be that year.

Happy New Year!