K.C. Singh | Rethink Strategy On J&K, Counter-terrorism & Pak

The suicide car bomb blast on Monday near Delhi’s historic Red Fort has both counter-terrorism and strategic implications. Both of these need to be examined carefully.

The counter-terrorism aspect relates to the Pahalgam killings in May. India’s May 7-10 Operation Sindoor was portrayed by the Indian government as punitive retaliation against Pakistan-based jihadi groups targeting India. New Delhi’s script, however, got derailed when US President Donald Trump claimed successful mediation to avert a nuclear Armageddon. Even worse, he repeatedly appeared to support Pakistan’s claims of downing four Indian planes.

The Indian government, as a result, failed to score points domestically in the way it did successfully after the Balakot attacks in 2019. That had clearly benefited BJP in the Lok Sabha election which immediately followed.

To counter Pakistan’s endorsement of President Trump’s claim of having mediated the India-Pakistan ceasefire, India began pronouncing that Operation Sindoor was on hold, and not over yet. Any future attack, India also proclaimed, would be treated as an “act of war”. The debate has begun on whether the car bomb blast was a deliberate attack or accidental detonation. In any case, it is seen as part of a larger conspiracy, emanating from Pulwama, allegedly linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed and an Al-Qaeda affiliate. If so, the role of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence cannot be ruled out. Will, therefore, Operation Sindoor Part 2 kick in soon?

Between the Pahalgam terror attack in May and now, the geopolitical context has mutated radically. A new positive phase of US-Pakistan relations has opened.

The administration of former President Joe Biden saw those relations slip. He mostly ignored the Pakistani leadership, and let his military commanders engage Pakistan. Political turbulence enveloped Pakistan as popular Prime Minister Imran Khan was deposed, with the Pakistan Army manipulating it from behind the scenes.

Even during President Trump’s first term (2016-20), he had tweeted in January 2018 that Pakistan’s “lies and deceit” to obtain US financial aid without reciprocal gain were bad. This changed only when the US sought Pakistan’s help to engage the Afghan Taliban to negotiate the withdrawal of US troops from there. Mr Trump’s special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad visited Pakistan a record 15 times.

President Trump’s second term, beginning January 2025, has unfurled a different narrative. Ever since Operation Sindoor, defying Indian expectations that the US will condemn Pakistan’s terrorism abetment against India, the White House doors opened to Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership. Immediately after the Indian operation Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, the newly-minted Field Marshal Asim Munir, had attended a lunch hosted by President Trump. This was an unprecedented event. India was already concerned over irrational tariffs imposed on Indian exports to the United States.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, having missed engaging President Trump during his Canada visit for the G-7 summit, had another surprise coming. The US leader invited him to swing by the White House, as he hosted the Pakistani military leader. The invite was obviously declined, pleading prior commitments elsewhere.

These were early signs of a thaw in US-Pakistan relations. Pakistan consolidated it by a number of moves. In March, Pakistan handed over to the US one Sharifullah, main accused in the 2021 killing of US troops at Abbey Gate, Afghanistan. There was much Pakistani self-congratulation over its counter-terrorism cooperation with the US. After Operation Sindoor, Pakistan began massaging Mr Trump’s ego by echoing his claims about mediation and then nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize. In return, Mr Trump kept repeating Pakistani claims of downing Indian fighter jets, the number now raised to eight. Pakistan also embraced crypto and digital currencies, having its Pakistan Crypto Council sign a deal with World Liberty Financial, 60 per cent owned by the Trump family.

Even more crucially, Pakistan shifted the focus from aid-dependency to economic partnership. It offered to hand over to the US Pasni port in Balochistan, located between the China-controlled Gwadar and India-Iran developed Chabahar ports. The port could be used by the US to import Pakistan’s rare earths and energy. On September 9, as a follow-up, the Pakistan Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) and US Strategic Metals (USM) signed a deal. On October 1, the first shipment of rare and critical minerals like antimony, copper concentrate, neodymium, etc, was dispatched.

Thus, Pakistan successfully repositioned itself between the US and China, balancing its dependence on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the US as a new economic partner. It effectively combined ego-massaging of President Trump with wooing of Mr Trump’s family and introducing rare minerals into their engagement, just when US vulnerability was obvious due to over dependence on China.

Emboldened by US wooing, Field Marshal Asim Munir became the Chief of Defence Forces, with control over all three services. The 27th Constitution Amendment, which was passed by Pakistan’s National Assembly on Wednesday, and the Senate earlier, was justified as it ensured “greater coordination and unified command”. The uncovering of the huge bombing plot in India, followed by the solitary Red Fort car bomb explosion, raises the question of the Pakistani Army’s role in it.

The history of India-Pakistan relations reveals repeated miscalculations by the Pakistan Army when misconstruing Indian vulnerabilities. Having won over President Trump, who has restored Pakistan’s diplomatic standing, Field Marshal Asim Munir could be testing India’s ability to follow up on its threat of Operation Sindoor still continuing. With the India-US trade deal at a crucial pre-finalisation stage, military retaliation against Pakistan carries the risk of provoking President Trump. A simultaneous bomb blast in Islamabad positions Pakistan as a victim of terror rather than as a perpetrator.

Establishing direct Pakistani involvement in the latest terror conspiracy, with tangible proof, will be difficult. Less than that would not earn India international support in fresh military retaliation. Non-retaliation, on the other hand, would weaken the Indian deterrence strategy. India thus confronts a fresh dilemma as its post-Balakot strategy of deterring Pakistan has reached an inflection point.

The BJP needs to rethink its counter-terrorism strategy. History teaches us that brute force alone cannot eliminate radicalism. Educated doctors and other white-collar workers at the centre of the latest plot compels the conclusion that winning hearts and minds is mandatory for successful counter-terrorism. Merely holding elections in Jammu and Kashmir, letting a popular government be installed, while retaining real power with New Delhi, is farcical. Pakistan’s designs cannot be countered by military or political sleight-of-hand. A genuine outreach to the people of Jammu and Kashmir and a fair solution is long overdue, especially the restoration of statehood.