K.C. Singh | Amid Trump Discord; India, World Can’t Lie Low Till 2028

India’s relations with the United States grew closer in the 2000-20 period, when the US was forced to tackle the outcome of the 9/11 terror attacks on America in 2001. India was relieved over the global attention turning to state-sponsored terrorism. India’s pleadings in the 1990s about Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks against India were largely ignored by the US and most of the West till 9/11 happened.

Besides, the convergence of views on counter-terrorism, China’s economic rise and increasing military preparedness also raised India’s strategic relevance. The United States saw a democratic and economically strengthening India as vital for balancing China. The four-nation “Quad”, comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US, was envisioned in 2007, for a soft containment of China.

President Donald Trump’s strategy of reshaping the post-Second World War global order was not visible during his first term (2016-20). In 2019, personal closeness between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi grew considerably. After the Pulwama terrorist attack on February 14,, 2019, on paramilitary personnel, India launched airstrikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and beyond. This occurred days before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. President Trump and the ruling families of Saudi Arabia and the UAE helped in quickly ending it. Undoubtedly, it electorally benefited the BJP.

The “Howdy Modi” Houston rally in September 2019, which President Trump attended, projected Prime Minister Modi’s grip on the Indian diaspora. In February 2020, President Donald Trump, while on a two-day India-visit, even attended a mass rally in Ahmedabad, months before the US presidential election. However, two months earlier, on December 31, 2019, China revealed its failure to contain the Covid virus. President Trump initially ignored the epidemic’s threat, but it derailed the remainder of his presidency.

President Trump’s re-election in November 2024 also brought the Heritage Foundation-crafted “Project 2025”. It was arch-conservative, shaped by supremacist Christian biases. To it President Trump added a paranoid perception of global trade, based on US victimhood and discrimination. Even America’s global strategic vision was coloured by allegations against allies and partners exploiting American military and financial strength.

However, while President Trump was out of office, the global strategic scenario had degraded. First, Russia militarily attacked Ukraine in February 2022, commencing the Ukraine war. Later, on October 7, 2023, after Hamas attacked Israel, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) unleashed hostilities against the residents of the Gaza Strip, killing over 75,000 civilians to date.

President Trump’s preconceived ideas included rebalancing global trade and quickly ending the hostilities in Gaza and Ukraine. US tariffs were weaponised to extract commercial or other concessions from allies, partners or rivals. First China, Canada and Mexico faced arbitrary high tariffs, allegedly for not stopping the drug fentanyl’s smuggling into the US. On April 2, declared as “Liberation Day”, tariffs were imposed on other trading partners. The stated justification was to tackle trade deficits. But Australia, with which the US traditionally had trade surpluses, failed that logic. Reflecting President Trump’s old charge of extremely unfair Indian tariffs, India was also targeted. Even punitive tariffs were added due to India’s Russian oil imports.

India appeared unprepared for Trump 2.0, assuming that past American strategic calculations and the Indian diaspora’s electoral role would constrain him. The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, causing 26 deaths, complicated the scenario. India’s retaliation on May 7, under Operation Sindoor, ended quickly but not before President Trump had become the mediator and peacemaker.

Pakistan grabbed the opening, employing flattery, including by recommending the grant of the Nobel Peace Prize, to woo President Trump. The Modi government’s narrative of India having punished Pakistan into submission contradicted outside mediation. The India-Pakistan combat was added to the US President’s growing list of wars that he ended.

Pakistani access to the White House increased further following its mediation to stop the Iran war, which the US and Israel began on February 28. India was seen in the Israel-US corner, negating any peace-making role. India chose reticence in handling Mr Trump, ignoring rather than countering fact-free claims on issues ranging from trade to mediation in India-Pakistan affairs. An India-US trade-deal, despite repeated claims of success, has remained elusive. An unnecessary interim deal was signed days before the February US Supreme Court ruling struck down the “Liberation Day” tariffs. The Trump administration immediately reimposed fresh global tariffs, expiring in July. Meanwhile, enquiries opened, under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, to examine global trade practices. On the charge of “forced labour”, fresh tariffs are being imposed, in the range of 10-12.5 per cent, including on India.

New Delhi’s reluctance to defy America is undoubtedly harming India’s global standing, especially among the Global South. India, however, could not ignore President Trump’s quote from a Michael Savag podcast, terming India and China as “hellholes”. India rebuked the White House. Countries have reacted differently to Trumpian insults and arbitrary tariffs. Most kept silent, pragmatically choosing cooperation. Canada and China, on the other hand, defied the US. China used its monopoly of rare earths to extract lower US tariffs. Eventually, President Trump visited China for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The only significant outcome was the US opting for engagement rather than confrontation or containment. US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s recent four-day India visit was basically to reassure New Delhi that the US still considers it as a strategic partner, for trade and global stability. Some days later, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, argued that the US subsidising of “the defence of wealthy nations is over”. On pending US arms sales to Taiwan, he was silent. Nevertheless, he balanced the strategic repositioning by proclaiming America’s “commitment to our Indo-Pacific allies and partners”.

While President Trump’s ministerial colleagues may present explanatory arguments, his social media posts equally often undermine them. India’s options are limited by America’s enfeebled Indian diaspora facing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) threats, the rising diplomatic standing of Pakistan and its proximity to the US as well as the Iran war’s impact on energy and fertiliser supply, besides affecting Indian trade and foreign exchange remittances. However, no Indian government can sustain the imbalanced status quo of India-US relations. India is wooing new markets, such as the European Union, Canada, Australia, Japan, etc. It is also seeking detente with China. The November 2026 US mid-term elections may leave President Trump distracted and weakened. But the world and India cannot simply lie low till 2028.

The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry. He tweets at @ambkcsingh.