Decline shows progress but warns of an ageing population and the need for a skilled workforce.
India's fertility rate has declined to 1.9, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1. The fertility rate is a metric that shows how many babies each woman is having on average in a particular country. A fertility rate that is below replacement level means India is on the path of controlling population, which is a welcome relief for the world’s most populated country.
However, beneath this statistical achievement lies a ticking demographic time bomb.
A declining fertility rate without adequate economic advancement would be disastrous for any country. If India’s population declines before it becomes rich, it will have a large elderly population, which a relatively smaller base of working population cannot support. This is a dangerous trajectory.
Nevertheless, India still has a window of opportunity where the working-age population outnumbers the dependents. However, this window is rapidly closing as the country’s population is expected to peak in 40 years, by the year 2065, from now and decline subsequently. The warning signs could already be seen in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where ageing is accelerating.
The conventional response to declining fertility has often been short-sighted, going remarks made by chief ministers of several states, offering cash incentives or tax rebates to encourage childbirth. However, India does not need more babies; rather, it needs better-prepared people.
The real challenge is not the number of people but the quality of the workforce. India’s large youth population could become a liability, not an asset, if it remains unskilled or underemployed. Our focus must immediately shift from maintaining population numbers to creating human capital, which could smoothen the country’s transition to an ecologically sustainable population.
The country, therefore, does not need token schemes, which are merely aimed at people’s sustenance. It should implement a nationwide coordinated push for high-quality education and skill development, which could help it in supporting an extraordinarily large ageing population.
