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DC Edit | Early Monsoon Arrival Offers Lifeline to Rural Economy

IMD forecasts May 27 onset in Kerala, raising hopes for timely sowing, improved farm incomes, and a boost in rural demand across India

The forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that the southwest monsoon will arrive in Kerala by May 27 — five days earlier than usual arrival — is more than just a weather update for crores of Indians. It is a glimmer of hope for the country’s rural economy, which is predominantly driven by agriculture. This assumes critical importance, especially at a time when rural consumption has been showing signs of stress.

An early monsoon bodes well for sowing in the Kharif season, because it allows farmers to begin farming ahead of time. Timely rains reduce dependence on underground water, improve crop yields, and enhance income security for crores of farmers.

With over 40 per cent of India’s workforce dependent on agriculture, the impact of early monsoon extends far beyond the farms. It influences rural demand, which constitutes 46 per cent of the overall demand and is a vital engine for India’s overall economic growth.

A pickup in rural demand was, therefore, of critical importance, especially in the wake of weak two-wheeler sales, subdued FMCG consumption, and stagnant wage growth in rural India. A good monsoon could help turn the tide as it will increase agricultural output and as a result disposable income in rural households. This translates into increased spending on consumer goods, services and even housing in rural India, which would have a positive ripple-effect on the Indian economy.

Early sowing can also reduce the risk of crop damage from delayed or erratic rains later in the season. With the IMD’s monsoon forecasts having shown commendable accuracy over the past two decades, except in one year, the prediction of early onset of monsoon inspires confidence among farmers and policymakers.

Some parts of the country have already reported scattered rains and a dip in temperatures in May which happens to be the peak summer, suggesting the adverse impact of climate change. Policymakers around the world should be mindful of its implications.


( Source : Asian Age )
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