AA Edit | The Collapsing Global Order

At the heart of this crisis lies the declining coherence of American power. The United States, whose economic heft, military might and institutional imagination built and sustained the post-1945 architecture is no longer a predictable steward of global stability. From Bretton Woods to Nato, from the Marshall Plan to the Pax Americana, the edifice of the US-led order was premised on credibility and continuity. That scaffolding has now collapsed into erratic unilateralism, alliance fatigue, and strategic whiplash.

The US share of the global economy has almost decreased by half since 1960. In 2024, US military spending stood at $997 billion, more than the next nine countries combined. But might is not always right, especially in a world where strategic ambiguity often defeats brute force. America’s overwhelming firepower has not translated into stabilisation be it in Iraq, Afghanistan, or now the Middle East. Since 2016, successive US administrations have oscillated between isolationist retrenchment and militarised assertion. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, subvert the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and sideline long- standing alliances in Europe and East Asia set the tone. The Middle East illustrates this breakdown more clearly than any other region with an uneasy ceasefire announced by President Trump between Israel and Iran still in an embryonic state. On June 21, 2025, the United States launched direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, targeting Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with B-2 stealth bombers armed with Massive Ordnance Penetrators. But Iran is no longer a regional outlier but a node in a broader axis stretching from Tehran to Beirut. It commands some 200,000 proxies across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and has signed a 25-year strategic partnership with China.

A miscalculation here could bring oil markets to their knees. The Strait of Hormuz, barely 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Over 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily which is roughly one- fifth of global consumption. Iran’s Parliament has already approved the vote for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the final decision is to be made by the Supreme National Security Council. The aftershocks will ripple through New Delhi, Beijing, Tokyo and Berlin.

Even as West Asia teeters, Europe bleeds. The war in Ukraine, now into its 40th month, has become the continent’s largest conflict since 1945. The casualty figures are staggering: Hundreds of thousands dead or wounded, military and civilian combined and over 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced. The US, EU and other allies have spent over $287 billion in total on supporting Ukraine since the war started. And yet Russia, under a regime that has lost neither its will nor nuclear leverage, continues its campaign, propped up by an axis of convenience with China, Iran and North Korea. The Russian economy has only weathered a slight decline in GDP compared to pre-war projections.

Meanwhile, global governance mechanisms have collapsed. The Security Council, once a symbol of post-war peacekeeping, is paralyzed by veto politics and great power rivalry, as it has been from its inception. It took a month to issue a resolution on the Gaza crisis. The body has become a theatre for performance rather than a platform for peace.

Democracy itself is in retreat. According to International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy report, 82 countries experienced democratic backsliding in at least one key indicator over the past five years. This represents the seventh year in a row of net global democratic decline, the longest uninterrupted period since records began in 1975. In 2024 alone, the world saw 61 conflicts across 36 countries which is the highest recorded figure since 1946. And while global governance falters, the nuclear threat is returning with a vengeance.

Arms control, which was once the pinnacle of post-Cold War diplomacy, has now come apart. The world now possesses over 12,000 nuclear warheads, with active stockpiles increasing. Global spending on nuclear weapons exceeded $100 billion in 2024. If history teaches us anything, it is that new orders do not emerge gently. The Peace of Westphalia came after the Thirty Years’ War. The Congress of Vienna emerged in the wake of Napoleonic devastation. The post-1945 order was born from the smoldering aftermath of global conflict. If this pattern holds, we may not be witnessing a temporary dysfunction, but the prelude to systemic transformation, perhaps through conflict, perhaps through collapse.

The rise of the BRICS bloc, with its 2024 expansion to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE, signals a fundamental rebalancing. These countries, representing substantial economic and energy clout, offer an alternative to Western- led institutions. China calls it multipolarity. Russia calls it de-dollarisation. For many others, it is simply hedging. For India, this moment is laden with both danger and opportunity. Never before has New Delhi stood so centrally within so many overlapping theatres of geopolitical competition; be it the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, or Eurasia. The era of non-alignment is today more relevant than ever. The notion of strategic autonomy must now be redefined not as inertia masquerading as restraint, but as agile, anticipatory diplomacy grounded in clarity. Surrounded by a recently US re-empowered Pakistan again, an assertive China and an increasingly disputed maritime domain, India can no longer afford to remain detached.

What makes this moment uniquely dangerous is the absence of any shared vision for what comes next. The United States seeks to retain primacy through unilateralism. China pursues state-centric capitalism with a global reach. Russia clings to spheres of influence and regional powers chart their own autonomous paths. But no single framework commands consensus. India must tread carefully by feeling the stones underfoot.