Ukraine's drone attack on five Russian air bases signifies is how modern wars have changed in character
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to swap prisoners and dead bodies. That is about the extent of the agreement forged at the peace talks held in Istanbul. Since Vladimir Putin’s idea of preconditions for a ceasefire amounts to a virtual surrender by Ukraine — giving up territory in four regions, limiting the size of the Ukrainian army, giving up a right to join Nato (if invited) and the ouster of Volodymyr Zelenskyy — the prospects of peace after Russia’s invasion have probably gone as cold as a Siberian winter.
The half chance that Putin could turn up at current peace talks to please his former friend, the US president Donald Trump, may also have died with the remarkable drone attack on Russian warplanes by Ukraine that was carried out on Sunday with precision and secrecy to bring about the Russian military’s 9/11 moment, if not quite a historical Pearl Harbour-like event that stunned the United States into entering World War II.
The loss inflicted on about a third of Russia’s strategic nuclear-capable fleet of modern aircraft is only an estimate, which Ukraine said consisted of 41 Tu-95s, Tu-22Ms and A-50s aircraft. Even if the loss was less than projected, this is a blow to Putin’s pride that may ensure he keeps the 40-month-old war going. The ability to strike targets anywhere in the massive geography of Russia has indeed been a humbling knock to the Kremlin.
Imagine the scale of the operation as Russia’s Siberian airbases lying 4,300 km away from the fluid western border with Ukraine being struck by drones smuggled in lorries and released on unsuspecting armed forces that have been one of the most feared in all the 80 years since World War II. But the hurt to Putin’s pride with a sophisticated hit that dents Moscow’s famous war machine will have far reaching consequences as the Russian President is unlikely to put the brakes on sustained drone and missile attacks on the cities of Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv.
What the Ukraine attack with 137 drones targeting five Russian air bases signifies is how modern wars have changed dramatically in character from the traditional boots on the ground backed up by bombers in the air to facilitate capture of enemy territory. This ultra-new warfare is about drones and missiles targeting across borders in an expensive Star Wars kind of scenario considering how nations may have to spend thousands of dollars-worth missiles to down even toy shop drones worth a couple of hundred dollars.
There was also more than a shade of Operation Sindoor in what Ukraine did in reaching deep into Russian territory to strike at strategic enemy military assets but in a subversive operation by deploying smuggled drones from nearby locations rather than extraterritorially from the air. Where all this may lead if non-state actors get hold of the technology to drive such operations is anyone’s guess.
The nub of it is that Putin’s Russia is still the aggressor in Ukraine and only the Kremlin can dictate how the war ends, which is a pity because how much humanity has lost in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s unrelenting pounding of Gaza is stratospheric compared to the hits and misses of jets-missiles-drones warfare.
