US President Donald Trump, by now aware that he had committed his regime’s most foolish military misadventure in taking on Iran at the behest of Israel, is desperate to get out of a situation in which fuel prices have spiked, his supporters’ patience has been tested and his political standing itself is in jeopardy
Will the ceasefire agreed to in the Iran war be effective enough for the nations involved to steer it towards a lasting peace or will the considerable disagreements already apparent lead to Iran War 2.0 is the question as peace talks are supposed to begin today in Islamabad.
Israel, and the US, are adamant that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon which got pounded even when most of the missiles and drones of Iran remained inactive. But Iran itself has been guilty of aiming a few projectiles at Gulf states after the ceasefire call. Thus far, the US is the only combatant to have stopped offensive operations.
Truth to tell, the war will resume unless Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is forced to give up his warmongering and his dreams of using the interim to keep imagining his dreams of a Greater Israel while building a Pax Judaica will be fulfilled.
US President Donald Trump, by now aware that he had committed his regime’s most foolish military misadventure in taking on Iran at the behest of Israel, is desperate to get out of a situation in which fuel prices have spiked, his supporters’ patience has been tested and his political standing itself is in jeopardy.
Israel is the primary culprit in merrily bombing Beirut and killing an estimated 300 people in a day after agreeing to a ceasefire regarding the Iran theatre of war while brazenly expanding its buffer zone in Lebanon. Its efforts to make parts of Beirut resemble a bombed-out Gaza City is all too clear.
Iran had also overstepped in its retaliation by continuing to launch attacks on fellow Muslim-majority nations in the region. Hezbollah, an Iran proxy funded and armed by Iran, is insisting that the Lebanese government cannot represent it in the proposed talks in Washington and Iran must take the responsibility to rein in the militant group with some political standing in Lebanon.
Unless and until all the bombs, missiles, guns and drones are sheathed in the whole region, the talks in Islamabad, whose very start is considered doubtful as Iran has been cagey about its team’s travel to Pakistan, can provide no breakthrough. Mr Trump may claim he has told Mr Netanyahu to scale back on attacks on Lebanon, but actions on the ground fail to validate genuine Israeli desire for peace in the region.
Iran’s intransigence in virtually throttling the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only 15 ships Thursday out of a daily average before the war of 300 vessels passing the chokepoint, is a major issue. All the world is affected by this and until safe passage for all ships is guaranteed, regardless of whether a toll is collected by Iran and Oman, the peace talks will have very little meaning.
The understanding in the rest of the world that is not involved in the war is that hostilities must first cease, failing which no ceasefire will be meaningful enough for the talks to begin in earnest. There are already so many huge points of divergence that cast serious doubts over whether the talks can produce the results that the world would want to see.
Principally, this whole quagmire in Iran and the region has been caused by Mr Netanyahu’s ambitions and his desperate efforts for political survival. Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei and the US’s Trump and [Pete] Hegseth may claim victory in the war but that pales before the need to get the dialogue going to ensure that the worst of the military action is over and that peace is prioritised.
