Sunil Gatade | Saffron Throne Rattled As Dimagi Naxals Lead Opp. Charge

The Prime Minister's reference to his detractors as “dimagi Naxals” in his Independence Day address is indicative of the desperation in which a beleaguered Narendra Modi finds himself.

A series of developments have forced Mr Modi to belatedly recognise that the youth, whom he had neglected for a long time, are the flavour of the political season and that they would be in the vanguard of the INDIA march.

The leader who used to dictate terms from a position of strength has landed himself in his worst political crisis since he became the PM 12 years ago. Thanks to the Jantar Mantar movement, which has drastically altered the climate.

Union minister Kiren Rijiju’s clarification that the Prime Minister’s reference to “dimagi Naxals” was aimed not at Opposition leaders but at specific individuals or groups he defined as supporting anti-national agendas has not helped matters as the damage has been done.

The doggedness and determination of the youth under the banner of the Cockroach Janta Party have provided the badly needed adrenaline to the Opposition parties which were helpless till the other day before the BJP’s bulldozer tactics and a hopeless situation.

It is hard to believe, but the just-concluded Monsoon Session of Parliament was the worst one for the Modi administration till now, with the Opposition remaining in the driver’s seat from the word go.

The Opposition parties are not off the mark when they have dubbed the address a “distress address” rather than a genuine national one and have accused it of being “full of mudslinging and outright lies”.

The reasons are not far to seek. A series of developments, from the resignation of education minister Dharmendra Pradhan to the furore over the use of pellet guns on agitating students, the Bankipur and Datia bypoll results and the failure of the PM and home minister Amit Shah to be present in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha in the just-concluded session, has made a major dent.

A weak Cabinet which has so far helped to project Mr Modi as a ‘strong leader’ has further compounded the problem. In fact, the Bankipur bypoll in Bihar has rattled the BJP and the Prime Minister, like the victory of V.P. Singh in the Allahabad Lok Sabha by-election did to Rajiv Gandhi and the Congress some four decades back.

Prashant Kishor has made history, as Bankipur is the first Assembly bypoll in independent India that has shaken the world’s largest party to its roots. It has failed to realise what has suddenly gone wrong.

What is worse is that Mr Kishor has embarked in right earnest on the campaign for the removal of BJP chief minister Samrat Chaudhary, insisting that the development of the key state is not possible with a man with such a controversial past at the helm. This is hurting the BJP more while it is attempting to stabilise in power.

Assembly elections in five states, including in Uttar Pradesh, are on the cards at the start of the New Year, and the signals emanating from the bypolls are disturbing the world’s largest party. The issue of the donation theft from the Ayodhya temple is already snowballing into a major one as the faithful all over are stunned.

No Assembly bypoll in the country has had so much of a national impact so far as the one in Bankipur, as the citadel of the BJP in the capital city of Patna was smashed to pieces by an ‘outsider’, wholly. Bankipur had been with the BJP uninterruptedly from 1995 with massive margins.

What is worrying for the BJP is that Mr Kishor succeeded in bringing a fresh narrative of jobs and education in an urban constituency, part of the capital city of Bihar, where a sizeable section of people is educated and belong to the middle class.

The first fallout of the Allahabad by-election in 1988 was that an alarmed Rajiv Gandhi brought in Sharad Pawar, who had then rejoined the Congress, as the Maharashtra chief minister in a move to set the party house in order. V.P. Singh had earlier parted ways with Congress by resigning as the defence minister after raising the Bofors issue.

In fact, the plight of the youth in Bihar due to the absence of any industry has remained the theme song of Mr Kishor since he entered politics some two years ago, focusing on his home turf. He had also taken out a padyatra to the nook and corner of Bihar as part of his outreach.

Mr Kishor had been able to set a new narrative in the bypoll that had overshadowed the BJP’s attempts to win back its traditional seat. The sudden entry of the Jan Suraaj founder made it a prestige battle for the BJP, which looks like it has taken the challenge lightly or was under the impression that it would sail through in its stronghold.

In the last Assembly polls, the BJP, after a long time, was able to establish its dominance in Bihar, where JD-U leader Nitish Kumar had remained the chief minister for two decades by constantly changing sides and earning the dubious sobriquet of ‘Paltu Ram’. At the same time, Nitish had been known as ‘Sushasan Babu’, too, who had shrewdly forced the BJP and the RJD to play second fiddle in the state.

Politically, Bihar has been an intense state that witnessed the start of the total revolution led by Jai Prakash Narayan way back in 1975 that led to the imposition of the internal emergency by Indira Gandhi.

The Bankipur bypoll is important in that it has put a question mark over the BJP’s future if the youth agenda takes precedence and prominence. In fact, the BJP has been banking on the youth and the middle classes since the emergence of Mr Modi on the national scene.

The Cockroach Janta Party’s Jantar Mantar movement has broken the back of the BJP in that the government was forced to have a dialogue with the agitators, resulting in Mr Pradhan’s resignation as the movement generated much pressure on the PM. The teflon image is in tatters.

What is significant is that the turn in the politics of Bihar is sans the language of Mandal, Kamandal or social justice.

Nationally, the Opposition has sensed more than an opportunity. The strongman looks defensive now.