Sunanda K. Datta-Ray | Trump, Modi & India-Pak Peace: The Unkindest Cut?

It was Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister, whom US President Donald Trump claims to admire and whom he always eulogises in public, who dealt the unkindest cut of all. Not only did Mr Modi belittle Mr Trump’s field of action by denying that India and Pakistan had been fighting for a thousand years, but by rejecting the US claim of bringing about the May 10 ceasefire between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, he has denied Mr Trump the role in history that he covets.

Could that rebuff help to explain what Indian television anchors call Mr Trump’s stab in the back for India, namely the admission that he had warned the Apple CEO, Tim Cook, not to expand manufacturing in India unless it is to cater specifically to domestic Indian demand? He also claimed that India had “offered to drop all tariffs” on the United States, which India has lost no time in denying.

“I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday,” Mr Trump added. “I said: ‘Tim you’re my friend, I’ve treated you very good, you’re coming here (to the US) with a $500 billion announcement, and now I hear you’re building all over India. I don’t want you building in India. You can build in India if you want to take care of India, because India is one of the highest tariff nations in the world … We put up with all the plants you built in China for years. We are not interested in you building in India. India can take care of themselves.” That was after Mr Trump’s West Asian tour when he met dozens of business leaders in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Mr Cook had confirmed that, owing to China-related trade uncertainties, Apple would produce most of the iPhones sold in the US in India in the June quarter. Apple wants to move 25 per cent of all iPhone production to India in the next few years, gradually moving away from China which has so far been the epicentre of the company’s manufacturing operations.

However, there has been a significant development since Mr Cook had revealed this. After initial escalation between the US and China over tariff rates, the two reached a trade deal just as Sino-American tensions started benefiting India, with US buyers turning to Indian suppliers following the imposition of 145 per cent tariffs by the US on Chinese goods.

It was widely expected that, because of significantly higher tariffs on China, companies like Apple would fast track diversification to India, where Apple has developed a sizable assembly base. But since any potential thaw in US-China ties could pose a challenge to the expected migration of supply chains to India, the shadow of a US-China truce still lingers over Indian ambitions.

However, India isn’t too worried, believing that far from being induced by tariff-related pressure, Apple’s migration to India began well before that, in 2020, in response to New Delhi’s diligent efforts to become a global manufacturing hub for electronics.

But China’s technological prowess and skilled human resources in electronics being generally considered superior to India’s, its improving trade relationship with the US is not good news for Mr Modi, who speaks of achieving Jawaharlal Nehru’s dream of Viksit (Developed) Bharat by 2047.

Also citing Nehru, again without attribution, Mr Modi claims to be inspired by the “atma nirbhar” (self-reliance) vision that inspired India’s economic planning immediately after Independence. It isn’t clear how supply chains of companies like Apple would react if the trade deal between the US and China offers significant tariff relief to Beijing.

Not that the 47th US President’s achievements are confined to showering compliments on Mr Modi and mediating between him and the leadership of nuclear-armed Pakistan next door. In his dramatic second coming, Mr Trump may have qualified at times to be called the American bull in the global china shop. He also demonstrates lurking ambitions to be labelled the man who would be King. His covetous glances at Greenland and Gaza, Mexico and even Canada suggest 19th-century colonialism at its most rapacious.

Since returning to the Oval Office on January 20 this year, Mr Trump has also said and done much to persuade Christians everywhere that he’s really the 21st century’s New Messiah. Giving every appearance of being someone in a hurry, on his first day in office, he pardoned about 1,500 people who were convicted of offences in the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

Within his first 100 days, he signed approximately 140 executive orders (far more than any recent President), some of which have been challenged in court. He also signed into law the Laken Riley Act on immigration, signed executive orders blocking asylum-seekers from entering the United States, reinstated the national emergency at the Mexico-US border, designated drug cartels as terrorist organisations, attempted to end birthright citizenship, and initiated procedures for the mass deportation of immigrants.

The “Department of Government Efficiency” that he established under billionaire South Africa-born businessman Elon Musk and which was tasked with cutting US federal government spending and limiting bureaucracy, has already overseen mass layoffs of civil servants. The Trump administration has withdrawn the US from the World Health Organisation and the Paris Climate Accords. At the same time, he revived stymied talks to control Iran’s nuclear plans and seems ready -- even anxious -- for a neon-lit role in the Ukraine peace talks, suggesting that “nothing” will happen until he has an official meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, he can’t decide whether the Russian or the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, started the war.

Mr Trump returned from his West Asian tour with promises of $1.4 trillion in sales and investment from the Saudis and the Gulf states. There was a personal sweetener too, a $400 million gold-plated Boeing 747, for presidential use. The jealous scoffed that the Qataris have previously given such gifts to the rulers of Iraq, Yemen and Turkey, and that this particular jet has been gathering dust for years. “Only a stupid person would reject such a gift”, Mr Trump says.

His tongue must have been firmly in his cheek as he told a reporter that Mr Modi was “a tougher negotiator” than him. “Much better”, he added. “No contest!”

But as far as anyone knows, it isn’t India’s Prime Minister who is the recipient of expensive presents. It’s the US President who earns billions in West Asia. It’s America First, literally!