As I write this, Pakistan’s actions continue to spiral up the escalatory ladder. Civilian areas, hospitals and schools are being targeted by it.
Thanks to our effective defence shield, we are able to neutralise the bulk of its drone and missile attacks. But civilian deaths in J&K, Punjab and Gujarat, are unacceptable. Our retaliatory steps are accurate, and aimed at key military installations. Clearly, we have a definitive upper hand in the war, and far greater air, land, and naval superiority, in addition to a superior defence shield. The government and our valiant armed forces deserve our gratitude and felicitations.
The question is where do things go from here? India will not yield an inch in a war that Pakistan initiated by its transparent state sponsored terrorism in Pahalgam. The problem is that Pakistan is not a normal nation. It has evolved into becoming a country trapped in the delusional over reach of its army and ISI, which collectively control the country’s destiny. What is clear is that it is increasingly a failed state. Its Prime Ministers are puppets chosen by the deep state. Elections are blatantly rigged to ensure this. Its most popular leader, Imran Khan, is in jail. The economy is in a shambles. The country is deeply mired in debt. In fact, as someone rightly said, the only job of the finance minister of the country is how to borrow more in order to service the mounting current debt. The small bail out it has recently received from the IMF can only be a short-term reprieve because the country’s economic fundamentals remain irretrievably degraded.
Secondly, the country’s leadership has for so long been in the bed of the terrorist network that is does not know the way back to normalcy. Rationality usually fails against bigotry. When bigots call the shot, there is little hope that rationality and balance can return.
Given the iron grip of the Army-ISI nexus, the people of Pakistan have lost their voice. Army chief Asim Munir is a mullah in army fatigues. Therefore, we cannot expect that organised terrorist networks as an extension of the state, will cease to exist. The only option left is to disable them to a point where they cease to be operationally effective. That has to be our ultimate goal.
Given this, what is crucial is that henceforth we take charge of the narrative, proactively controlling it rather than forced to react every time. For too long we either did nothing, merely flexed our muscles, or sought certificates of restraint and “good conduct” from the world. The record speaks for itself. When in 1999, there was verifiable intrusion into our borders at Kargil, we managed to finally evacuate the intruders — clearly from the Pakistan army — but at a huge cost in terms of the lives of hundreds of our young officers and military personnel, since the invaders were perched at high vantage points and could easily target our brave army personnel. Any other nation, seeing the number of coffins arriving daily, would have parachuted troops across the LOC and sealed the supply lines to the invaders.
In 2001, the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LET) even attacked the Indian Parliament, no less. We did nothing except to mass troops along the border. In 2008, the Mumbai attack took place (26/11), killing 166 innocent Indians. Again, although there was no doubt that the reprehensible attack was masterminded by the Pakistan army and the ISI, we took no retaliatory action. In 2016, when the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) attacked Uri, killing 19 soldiers, we finally carried out a surgical strike. And, in 2019, after the Pulwama attack, we responded by the Balakot bombing, demonstrating that India has the will to say enough is enough.
But all of these were reactions. Now, we must be the master of the narrative. Every ceasefire violation (in 2020 there were almost 5,000 by Pakistan) must be doubly repulsed, inflicting far more severe punishment, including intrusion into PoK. In addition, we have to take the battle into Pakistan territory. We have two potent weapons to do that. The first is the correct step of putting the Indus Water Treaty agreement of 1960 in abeyance, so that we can control the flow of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) into Pakistan.
The treaty was far too generous to begin with, and is not sacrosanct due to violations of the provisions mentioned in it. Even if the perception gains ground — as the sudden dip in the waters of the Chenab flowing into Pakistan when we shut the sluice gates showed — that India can use this potent weapon, it can create panic across the border, since 25 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP depends on agriculture. While we should expedite our infrastructure to affect this disruption, even not sharing real time data with Pakistan on the river flows can be severely dislocating.
Secondly, the time has come for us to respond to Pakistan’s relentless support to terrorism, by returning the gesture in Balochistan. The further balkanisation of Pakistan is waiting to happen. It only requires an organised push from our side. This is not to justify a country’s covert subversion of another. But at some point, if this is the relentless policy of the enemy nation against India,
India must, in its own self-interest — and generically in the interest of a world seeking to fight international terrorism of which Pakistan is the epicentre — do everything in its power to weaken and destroy that malignancy.
The cumulative effect of all our measures should be to turn the people of Pakistan against the Army-ISI nexus, that is single-handedly responsible for Pakistan’s pitiable situation today. When farmers begin to worry about the availability of water, and when ordinary people understand that they are passive victims of a war that is not in their interest, and is only being fought to protect the interests and fuel the egos of generals and their kept terrorists, there is just the possibility that they may revolt.
There can be no enduring peace until Pakistan’s “deep state” is weakened or eliminated. Towards this goal, from now on Pakistan should be forced to react to what we do. Not the other way round.
