Kamal Davar | Iran-Israel conflict escalation, with no early end in sight, leaves India in a fix

The world is, unfortunately, at war with itself as never before since the end of the Second World War in 1945. Both global and regional disruptions litter the geo-political landscape with frequent kinetic conflicts and erupt in unexpected regions and scenarios. The latest is the Israel-Iran war, which has been raging with ferocity since June 13. The US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites late on June 21, bringing America directly into the conflict, has escalated it further.

The Israel Defence Forces, fully supported by Mossad, the country’s celebrated intelligence service, launched Operation Sea Lion on June 13, attacking many militarily vital targets all across Iran, including its nuclear infrastructure, heavy water plants, command and control centres and airbases.

Israel, which fears an existential threat from Iran, especially if it acquires a nuclear capability soon, has also come under heavy retaliation from Iran and hit by an intensive barrage of long-range ballistic missiles, drones, etc. There have been significant casualties and destruction on both sides, with considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the ARAK heavy water reactor and the nuclear weapons producing facility at Natanz. The threat to each other, over the past few days, and the consequent exchanges have cascaded exponentially, with no end in sight, despite calls from many nations, including India, to not prolong this conflict. The US, which said a few weeks ago that it was eager to bring about a ceasefire, seems to have changed its stand and is putting near-impossible conditions for Iran and demanding its surrender. No self-respecting nation can ever accept such humiliation, and thus the conflict continues.

The highly sophisticated pinpoint-accuracy arsenal with which Israel has ensured the elimination, by missiles and drones, of many very senior-level Army officers and top nuclear scientists is also a significant factor. The Israelis are also claiming that they are in complete control of Iranian airspace.

Meanwhile, the exchange of fire by long-range ballistic missiles from both sides continues to spread destruction. In addition, many civilians in several major towns inside Iran are evacuating their homes, and so have students who were studying in Tehran and other places in Iran. India has formally launched Operation Sindhu to evacuate its students and other Indian nationals through Iran’s border with Armenia.

With this conflict not showing any signs of abating, India too finds itself in a dilemma, for New Delhi has cordial relations with both Iran and Israel. With Iran, we have civilisational and cultural links, apart from Iran never desisting from supplying us with oil at relatively cheaper rates and at times through rupee payments. Meanwhile, Israel has stood by India right since the 1971 operations and onwards, including during the Kargil conflict, and later supplying us with ammunition and other equipment according to India’s requirements. It has never hedged in not stopping hi-tech state-of-the-art equipment to India, including the supply of drones, long-range missiles and the like.

Therefore, the aggravation of the Iran-Israel war will certainly harm India to a large extent.

For India, Iran provides much-needed connectivity to Central Asia. India’s massive investment in Iran’s Chabahar port, a competitor to Pakistan’s Gwadar port, allows India a vital link to the Central Asian republics. The latter is important for India not only regarding energy security but also the abundance of rare earth minerals. An Iran-Israel war will hamper India’s trade with Central Asia andalso delay the progress of the International North-South Corridor. Any problems in this connectivity will hamper India-Afghan trade too as Pakistan does not permit trade between India and Afghanistan using its overland routes. China will thus try to replace India in its matrix with Kabul.

Importantly, the air war between Iran and Israel may pose a serious threat of disruption to India’s energy supplies coming from Iran and the Gulf countries. India obtains nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements from the Middle East region. The ongoing conflict has hiked oil prices already, and transport costs have seen a substantial jump, as a result of which both inflation and the current account deficit have been adversely affected.

This conflict has, once again, brought Pakistan back in the reckoning in South Asia. The de-hyphenation between two vastly differing nations, India and Pakistan, had reduced to a large extent.

India, as a victim of terrorism from across the border, cannot be equated with Pakistan, which is widely acknowledged as the epicentre of global terror. Thus, the US making much of Pakistan’s Army chief, the self-appointed Field Marshal Asim Munir, is surprising, to say the least. Some analysts feel that in case the United States intervenes directly in the Israel-Iran war, the US might require airbases close to the Iranian border, which Pakistan is ready to provide. Thus, a mercurial US President Donald Trump has altered his stance towards Pakistan, and has re-hyphenated Pakistan with India.

Pakistan will surely extract its pound of flesh from the US, which will encourage it to continue with its terror-driven activities in South Asia. Also, in the long run, Shia-dominated Iran will not be appreciative of Pakistan’s current flirtations with the US, which is a sworn enemy of Iran. Tehran, meanwhile, also maintains not very warm relations with Pakistan.

With the situation escalating, and no sign of the Iran-Israel conflict ending anytime soon, both the Middle East and South Asia appear headed for violent turmoil in the immediate future. Not only for itself but for all these nations pitched against each other in unwarranted, senseless conflicts, India must take the initiative immediately to organise a peace-seeking conclave in New Delhi with the concerned stakeholders and try to infuse peace and harmony among these warring nations. Let this be the message to the world from the land of Mahatma Gandhi.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency. and is a strategic analyst