Kamal Davar | Despite spending hike on defence, many challenges yet to be tackled

Over the past four years, not only is the post-Covid-19 world at war with itself, but warfare has emerged in newer forms, with myriad challenges across varying domains putting to rest military truisms which have stood the test of time. India lies in one of the most politically stressed and stricken regions in the world. Confronting an overly assertive and ambitious China, and a perpetually anti-India Pakistan, both independently and in collusion with each other, is a glaring fact of our regional geopolitical conundrum. With the erstwhile pro-India neighbour on our east, Bangladesh, has in the past few months unexpectedly become hostile, means India is now facing a third front.

To achieve the requisite operational capabilities and strategic deterrence, are India’s armed forces adequately equipped for modern warfare across land, sea, air, space, cyber, AI and other emerging technological dimensions. To attain the desired military capabilities, adequate allocations in the country’s defence budget is simply unavoidable.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presenting her eighth Union Budget, for 2025-26, has earmarked Rs 6.81 lakh crores for defence spending, including Rs 1.8 lakh crores for military modernisation. This year’s allocation is 9.5 per cent higher than what was allocated for defence in last year’s Budget and six per cent more than last year’s revised estimates. It accounts for 1.9 per cent of the nation’s projected GDP and 13.45 per cent of the government’s Budget. As in some earlier years, the finance minister did not touch upon defence allocations in her speech.

The revised Budget estimates show that the armed forces were unable to spend Rs 12,500 crores of last year’s capital outlay of Rs 1.72 lakh crores -- an avoidable malaise. Defence minister Rajnath Singh has said that 75 per cent modernisation outlay will be spent on buying weapons and equipment from domestic sources to give a fillip to achieving self-reliance in the defence manufacturing sector.

An overview of India’s defence budgets since Independence has most analysts surmising that, by and large, they have been short of expectations in overall allocations, yearly spending as also bereft of long-term planning. Without delving too much into the past, it has been observed that our defence budgets have been largely slightly above two per cent of our GDP, which is quite inadequate. The only exception was after the 1962 debacle against China. In the last financial year, however, it had fallen to a mere 1.9 per cent of GDP. Various parliamentary committees have suggested that the allocations for defence should be at least three per cent of GDP.

While India has the world’s fourth largest defence budget, it is still in dire need of additional fighter aircraft, an extra aircraft- carrier, as well as warships, nuclear submarines, advanced multi-role helicopters, drones of various types, light tanks, additional artillery, air defence missiles and aero engines, apart from replenishing its ammunition stocks.

As widely reported in the media, there are many critical gaps in our arsenal. The Indian Air Force is down to a precarious level of 31 fighter squadrons, as against the minimum desired strength of 42 squadrons, and this grave operational void needs to be filled with the alacrity it deserves. The IAF too must send a firm recommendation to the government for the aircraft it urgently requires, along with details of the induction of AMCA (Advanced Medium-Range Aircraft), plans for induction of the Indigenously-built Tejas MK-1 and aero-engines for it,

acquisition of ultra-modern drones, etc. China already deploys many fifth-generation aircraft and recently unveiled two types of sixth-generation aircraft. Even financially stressed Pakistan is reportedly trying to acquire 40 fifth-generation aircraft from China. The defence ministry, DRDO and HAL must move much faster to fulfil the IAF’s requirements. For all this, substantial budgetary allocations are required, and wherever shortfalls are there in capital outlays for modernisation could be made up later.

For decades, India has been among the top arms-importing nations. Most of our defence public sector units, set up since the early 1950s, have under-performed. The government has done well by emphasising on self-reliance for all defence needs of the nation and its “Atma Nirbharata” programme should be given full support for successful implementation. The decision to spend 75 per cent of its budgetary allocations for purchases from domestic manufacturers is indeed a bold one. The Centre must also ensure genuine assistance to India’s vibrant and technologically advanced private sector.

Also, foreign equipment manufacturers must be encouraged to set up production units in India itself for mutual benefit. It is a common lament that some of our policies like “single window clearances” are mere utterances, and not observed with sincerity by our bureaucracy.

One area where India’s indigenous defence industry can take credit is in the encouraging spurt in the export of defence equipment. India is supplying Brahmos cruise missiles, Pinaka rockets, artillery guns, radars, Dhruv helicopters, electronic warfare systems, among other equipment, to some friendly foreign nations. India’s defence exports have reached Rs 21,083 crores in 2023-2024, a 32.5 per cent increase from the previous financial year. The government aims to have defence exports touching Rs 50,000 crores by 2029.

Overall, factoring the emerging security challenges to India in the foreseeable future, the nation has to ensure its military capabilities to be adequate for its needs. The government and the service headquarters thus must ensure the capital outlays earmarked for modernisation are wisely and fully spent in the current financial year. Additional budgetary support, if and where required, should also be catered for.

Successfully confronting India’s all-encompassing security challenges is, therefore, the need of the hour.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency, and is a strategic analyst