The Middle East conflict exposes the vulnerability of India’s Gulf diaspora and the remittance lifeline millions depend on.
There is no such thing as someone else’s war.
The ongoing Middle East conflict is seeping into everyday life in India, even my neighbourhood South Delhi beauty parlour.
Somit, a beauty therapist in Greater Kailash Part-2, worries constantly about her husband Marcel, a chef in Dubai. Both are originally from Darjeeling. “Marcel tells me he is perfectly safe. His restaurant is not in the centre of Dubai. He has been going to work every day. Everything is fine. The shops are open...” she says.
Despite their constant contact, via video calls, Somit’s anxiety persists. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), is effectively shut, the war rages on, but India has not given up on its Gulf dream.
Last year, she had pleaded with Marcel to return from Bahrain because their children missed him desperately. “He came back. But there was no suitable job for him here. He applied everywhere, went for interviews but nothing worked. He had no work for six months so then he decided to go back to the Gulf. This time, to Dubai. What choice did he have?”
Somit’s story is part of a broader picture. The war, sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, culminating in the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and met with Iranian missile and drone retaliations, has laid bare the vulnerability of the Gulf migration corridor for nearly 10 million Indian expatriates. That illusion of safety, stability and permanence has been dented. The theatre of war is expanding; no one quite knows how long the hostilities will last. Both sides are intensifying their attacks. Yet amid the deaths, devastation in the war zone and the mounting uncertainty, many Indian expatriates remain upbeat.
Mahesh Singh, a shipping business owner from Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, and a respected community leader after two decades in the UAE, told me over WhatsApp from Ajman, the smallest of the seven UAE emirates: “We are all safe and sound. The UAE government and the Indian consulate are taking care of every Indian.”
“This is my home. I have no plans to come back,” he says. His family is also settled in Ajman.
The Indian media’s focus has largely been on its diaspora in the UAE’s big cities which were struck by some of the most intense and visible Iranian barrages: hundreds of missiles and drones in the early days of the conflict, aimed at or near major civilian hubs such as Dubai International Airport, iconic landmarks like the Burj Al Arab and Palm Jumeirah hotels, and surrounding residential and commercial areas.
Indian expatriates, however, are spread across all seven emirates -- Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah. The ongoing conflict has also highlighted the evolving face of Indian migration to the Gulf. Historically dominated by southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during the early oil boom, the pattern has shifted decisively northward. Since around 2011-2012, Uttar Pradesh has emerged as a leading sender of workers to the Gulf, followed closely by Bihar and other states.
A 2024 paper by Rajesh Kumar and Ajailiu Niumai highlights this transition: in the beginning of the oil boom: South Indian states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were the top migrant producing states, but later, migration from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar surged. Currently, Uttar Pradesh sends more blue-collar workers, driving migration volume, but Kerala’s skilled workers still dominate remittances.
What is at stake? India recently recorded over $135 billion in personal remittances, reinforcing its position as the world’s leading recipient. These remittances now exceed India's gross inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The remittance story is critical as it plugs the country’s current account deficit, making it an economic stabiliser and a key source of upward mobility for millions of Indian households.
Gulf Cooperation Council nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE) account for about 35-40% of this total, or roughly $50 billion annually. The UAE alone contributes around 19% (over $25 billion), underpinning household stability in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, and others: funding education, home loans, debt repayment, and daily expenses.
A prolonged conflict risks disrupting employment, prompting mass returns, or weakening oil-reliant economies, potentially cutting Gulf remittances by tens of billions and straining India’s current account amid soaring oil prices. The UAE, home to the largest Indian community abroad (around 4 million), would feel the heaviest impact. Host nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have acted swiftly with alerts, infrastructure activation, and resident support.
But conflicts can spark currency swings, wage delays or repatriations, jeopardising loans and education plans.
Which brings me to the moot point: what is the Plan B if the war rages on, disrupting the remittance story? Arguably, community networks are key. Kerala and Andhra also have dedicated agencies dealing with overseas migrants. Between March 1-7, 2026, over 52,000 Indians returned from the Gulf, including 32,107 on Indian carriers, with more flights planned in the coming days. The MEA operates 24/7 control rooms. But the crisis exposes deep vulnerabilities faced by India’s diaspora in the Gulf: a geopolitical shock can halt remittances, freeze jobs and block return paths. Workers must build alternatives --through upskilling, savings and local income sources -- so migration need not remain the sole lifeline. Without such buffers, such short stints are highly risky.
Has it happened before? The short answer: Yes. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, tens of thousands of Indians were forced out of Kuwait and Iraq, and remittances dropped sharply. During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, construction halts slowed migration flows and remittances dipped again, before recovering. During Covid-19 (2020–21), lockdowns and job losses hit Gulf migrants hard. Significantly, the RBI’s Sixth Round of India’s Remittances Survey (2023-24) revealed a major shift: advanced economies (US, UK, Singapore, Canada, Australia) now collectively account for over half of India’s remittances, surpassing the Gulf’s share.
The world, however, is also becoming much more protectionist and unpredictable; the sheer number of Indians in the Gulf, their vulnerability, and a history of sudden economic dips mean that ignoring these risks could erode India’s external buffers. India must expand bilateral labour protections. Simultaneously, Indian families should create emergency reserves in the country, reduce over-reliance on Gulf flows, hope for the best, and make contingency plans for the worst-case scenario.
