Congress weighs Siddaramaiah’s support and Shivakumar’s strength in key dispute.
In Karnataka, deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar is seeking to oust the state’s Congress chief minister Siddaramaiah because he was apparently promised a turn at the top job when the party formed the state government in 2023. However, the Congress Party does not seem to be in a position to implement that change.
It may seem strange that the party should be in the throes of a crisis while it holds a comfortable majority in the Legislative Assembly -- 137 seats out of 224. The crisis is of its own making and the survival of the Congress government is not at stake, although its leadership is.
Mr Shivakumar is the most efficient resource-gatherer of the Congress and his fund-raising abilities ensure that it can fight resource-intensive elections against the BJP across the country. Few others in the Congress can match his network in business and politics that gives him financial heft and logistics support.
Mr Shivakumar has come to the rescue for the Congress in several high-stakes situations, such as “herding” MLAs to his resort or “safe” hotels to prevent defections in crucial elections. In February 2024, he played the shepherd during the Karnataka Rajya Sabha election; in 2017 he moved 44 MLAs from Gujarat to his resort near Bengaluru to ensure Ahmad Patel’s victory in the Rajya Sabha elections, and in the 2019 Karnataka trust vote crisis, he camped outside a Mumbai hotel to prevent MLAs from defecting to the BJP.
Why would the Congress high command not respect a commitment to one of its most loyal soldiers? The answer is complex.
While Mr Shivakumar controls the purse, it is Mr Siddaramaiah who commands the numbers. For survival and stability, the Congress needs to balance Mr Shivakumar’s organisational and resource strength with Mr Siddaramaiah’s mass politics.
Mr Siddaramaiah claims that he has the people’s mandate to serve a full five-year term. What emboldens him is not only the fact that he seems to enjoy the trust of the Congress high command but also the strong support he enjoys among social groups which form the backbone of Congress support in Karnataka.
His AHINDA (Kannada acronym for Alpasankhyataru, or minorities, Hindulidavaru, or backward classes, and Dalitaru, or Dalits) strategy of consolidating the votes of the marginalised resonates not only on the ground but also with the Congress’ central leadership.
Mr Siddaramaiah had briefly flirted with the idea of floating an AHINDA party, to consolidate these groups into a durable political force when he was expelled from the Janata Dal (Secular) in 2005. However, instead, he decided to join the Congress in 2006 bringing his AHINDA base along, strengthening the party’s social coalition. This popular base and the readymade organisational structure of the Congress eventually propelled him to chief ministership in 2013.
Mr Shivakumar’s base, on the other hand, is among the Vokaliggas, the dominant agrarian community, concentrated especially in the Old Mysuru region of southern Karnataka. The Vokaliggas form a decisive bloc in state politics. The Congress needs both Mr Shivakumar’s Vokaligga support base, especially against the entrenched JD(S) Vokaligga base in Old Mysuru, along with the AHINDA coalition of Mr Siddaramaiah, to stay in power.
If the Congress stays with Mr Siddaramaiah as chief minister, the options before Mr Shivakumar are limited. He will gain little by splitting the party. In any case, he has made it clear that he is “not in a hurry” and that he will abide by the decision of the party high command (as has Mr Siddaramaiah).
He cannot benefit from joining the BJP and may be prevented by JD(S)’s main Vokaligga face, H.D. Kumaraswamy, who although currently an alliance partner of the BJP, may not be beyond merging his party with the BJP to hamper Mr Shivakumar’s ambitions. Besides, the BJP already has a few Vokaligga faces in its state leadership such as C.N. Ashwath Narayan and R. Ashoka (both former deputy CMs), and C.N. Manjunath (recent entrant and H.D. Deve Gowda’s son-in-law who crossed over to the BJP).
Mr Shivakumar’s strength lies in his Congress identity. Breaking away will isolate him and weaken his bargaining power. In any case, his support in the Legislative Assembly is estimated to be limited to 40-45 MLAs compared to Mr Siddaramaiah’s 60-65 MLAs.
Mr Shivakumar’s strategy, therefore, seems to be to engage in high-stakes negotiations even as Mr Siddaramaiah insists on completing his five-year term. While staking his claim to chief ministership, Mr Shivakumar is also simultaneously signalling patience, keeping his loyalists MLAs close, yet also allowing them to demand that the Congress keep its 2023 promise to him.
On the other hand, should the party sideline two-time chief minister Siddaramaiah despite his experience, it will have a far more destabilising and destructive effect. He has the potential to erode the AHINDA social alliance that has catapulted the Congress to power in the state. If ousted, Mr Siddaramaiah’s loyalists could make Mr Shivakumar’s majority fragile.
Mr Siddaramaiah could also create moral pressure on the Congress claiming that he was betrayed, even though he had implemented all the welfare promises made by the Congress. This could weaken the Congress’ grip on governance even if the party does not break or face defections.
However, his age goes against Mr Siddaramaiah. He is 77 years old and this feeds into the narrative that he should make way for a younger leader. Mr Shivakumar is 63 years old and is seen as more energetic, with a longer political future before him. Traditionally, the Congress had rotated older leaders with younger mid-career figures in states where succession battles loomed. Where it has not done so, as in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the internal power tussles have damaged the party.
Mr Shivakumar's relative youth strengthens the claim that he represents the next generation of the Congress in Karnataka and that he could lead the party in the 2028 Assembly election and well beyond. Age may not diminish Mr Siddaramaiah’s popularity, but it will be an important consideration in deciding on succession and stability in the party.
Given the fact that the Congress Party rules only three states in India, it will have to choose its options very carefully to ensure its government remains stable in the richest state where it has more than a comfortable majority.
The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi
