Bharat Bhushan | Alien Mercenaries & Revival of Conspiracies in N-E India

On March 13, the National Investigation Agency arrested six Ukrainians and one American citizen who allegedly crossed over to Myanmar from Mizoram. The incident has reignited conspiracy theories about the intention of foreign powers in Myanmar and India’s Northeast.

In India, it has revived speculation about a “Coupland Plan Redux” -- an alleged attempt to carve out an independent state from India’s Northeast. The original Coupland Plan, proposed in the 1940s by British academic Sir Reginald Coupland, envisioned a Crown Colony comprising Assam’s tribal areas and hill regions as they existed then, with a warm-water port at Chittagong. Although the plan was rejected outright, it remains a colonial memory. Today, it is invoked by conspiracy theorists and some ideological forces to fuel suspicions of external plots to disintegrate India.

Strategic experts, particularly in Bangladesh, however, suspect a more plausible scenario: a US attempt to carve out an independent state comprising Myanmar’s Arakan and Chin regions, a land flank to China’s Yunnan province. Such a state could, theoretically, extend into India’s Northeast and Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts.

The Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine group, controls much of Rakhine state in Myanmar, including areas near Sittwe Port -- vital for India’s Kaladan Project and “Look East” policy. Instability there directly affects India’s trade and connectivity projects.

So far, US policy has not been about creating new states in South Asia. Its stated position is supporting democracy in Myanmar and strengthening strategic ties with India and Bangladesh. However, speculation on US intentions to carve a new state is partly fuelled by the US Congress passing the Burma Act in 2022. This law authorises humanitarian assistance to displaced people in Myanmar, supports civil society and democracy activism, and imposes sanctions on military leaders. While the US frames this as promoting democracy, critics see it as a covert attempt at regime change.

Because the law refers to aid to NGOs and ethnic organisations -- some of which are armed, the US intentions are being interpreted as backing separatism. The presence of warm-water ports at Sittwe further feeds speculation that US aid is linked to encircling China by carving out a “new state”.

This fear stalled the US proposal in early 2025 to create a “humanitarian corridor” from Chittagong in Bangladesh to deliver aid to the people trapped in the civil war in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. The plan became controversial even though the interim government of Muhammad Yunus in Bangladesh broadly agreed to it.

There was domestic pushback from political parties and the Bangladesh Army, suggesting that it compromised sovereignty and suspicion that the corridor might be used for purposes other than humanitarian aid by the US. This dove-tailed into the speculation that the US wanted to carve out a separate state out of Myanmar.

Bangladesh had to consider regional sensitivities as well. India may also have been worried about possible spillover to its Northeast as a Chittagong to Rakhine corridor could alter the insurgent and refugee flows impacting Mizoram and Manipur. China probably viewed the move as Bangladesh becoming a “Trojan Horse” for US influence in Myanmar’s civil war. As a result, the “humanitarian corridor” project never took off.

The NIA’s arrest of seven foreigners has intensified these fears. The FIR filed by the NIA alleges they crossed into Myanmar illegally from Mizoram and were importing “huge consignments of drones from Europe via India” for use by ethnic armed groups (EAGs) there. The FIR claims these EAGs are known to be supporting some proscribed Indian insurgent groups “by way of supplying weapons and other terrorist hardware and training them thus affecting national security and interests of India”. Accused of plotting against India, they have been booked under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act.

Media reports indicate that Russia tipped off India about these activities, raising questions about whether Indian agencies were unaware of their repeated movements through Mizoram. Mizoram’s chief minister had already warned in 2025 of foreigners entering the state and disappearing, criticising the “free movement regime” that allowed border residents to travel 16 km without visas. Since last year, Mizoram also requires a Restricted Area Permit for entry by outsiders.

The NIA’s FIR is unclear about how a “huge consignment of drones” were transiting through India. Since February 9, 2022, the import of drones in any form -- completely built unit, completely knocked down, and semi-knocked down -- is prohibited for private individuals and entities. Yet, they were being smuggled with impunity.

The FIR fails to specify which EAGs were trained in Myanmar or were linked to Indian insurgents. Experts note that the Chin and Arakan insurgent groups across the border in Myanmar’s Chin state are focused on fighting the military junta. They are not hostile to India as they get their smuggled civil supplies from the Indian side to survive.

The Meitei armed groups of the Imphal Valley, especially the People’s Liberation Army, as well as the Naga insurgent groups and even Ulfa have links across the border in Myanmar in the adjoining Sagaing region, north of Chin state which borders Manipur. However, they want to be on the good side of the Myanmar military establishment for providing them shelter.

There is, however, a group called the Zomi Revolutionary Army (Eastern Command) in Myanmar which is believed to be in touch with the Kuki-Zo communities of Manipur. But this group, mostly in the Chin state, is opposed to Chin resistance groups and aligned with the military establishment in Naypyidaw. Although former Manipur CM N. Biren Singh had blamed a “foreign hand” for stoking unrest in the state in 2023, there was every indication that its primary roots were local ethnic grievances. The seven foreigners in any case did not cross over from Manipur. Overall, it seems they were focused on training the Chin armed groups.

Regardless of the NIA FIR’s framing, India is bound to be embarrassed by its Northeast being used as a logistics corridor for Myanmar insurgents. The fact that Western mercenaries or agents were training Myanmar rebels makes it necessary for India to send a signal that it will not tolerate any foreign role in its sensitive border areas.

India perhaps also fears drone technology spilling into the region, which could strengthen insurgents unintentionally. The arrests underscore India’s strategic anxieties about its restive Northeast. The US-backed separatism may be sheer geopolitical speculation, but foreign mercenaries have been training insurgents and smuggling drones is real. It assumes special significance as India’s Northeast will be seen as a potential corridor for insurgency -- with both India and Bangladesh an unwitting part of an unfolding China-US rivalry.

The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi