Abhijit Bhattacharyya | Why India Should End Its Endless Folly Over China
A few instances will show what a difficult situation India is facing due to its own misjudgement, providing China with astronomical profitability to pin New Delhi down in its own land. When it was reported in October 2025 that direct flights between Kolkata and Guangzhou would soon start, traders and businessmen were delighted
The saying “once bitten, twice shy” appears not to apply to the successive rulers of Independent India when it comes to dealings with China. The proverb’s meaning is clear: if you’ve had a bad or painful experience, you’ll be more careful about repeating it. But not when Delhi faces the Dragon. Can India publish the full list of how many times it has been bitten by China from 1950 to 2026, and how many times New Delhi tried to take corrective steps instead of “business as usual”. The number of hostile acts by China is so long that it would be sheer embarrassment to 21st century India if a serious student of international affairs reveals open-sourced figures on how successive Indian rulers failed to grasp the danger from the Dragon.
Let’s take the latest sample of Chinese treachery and malevolence towards India. On May 7, the first anniversary of Operation Sindoor, when India struck back at Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack (the operation lasted four days), Beijing officially showed off its clandestine role in support of its proxy Islamabad. A Chinese engineer boasted that a Chinese team was stationed at a base in Pakistan all through the four-day India-Pakistan clash to provide full-time on-site tech assistance and ensure the Chinese-made J-10 CE fighters could operate at maximum effectiveness. Engineer Zhang declared: “Our experience was not just recognition of our flying machine, but a testament to the deep bonds we formed through working side by side, day in and day out (with Pakistan’s Air Force)”. He also claimed a role in the downing of hi-tech Indian fighter jets.
In May 2026, China has a $115 billion trade surplus with India. Military Balance 2026 (IISS London) reports that India’s 2025 defence budget stood at $78 billion. Is India’s $115 billion trade deficit helping China’s $251.3 billion defence budget?
When India and Pakistan clashed a year ago, China joined in and took an undeclared part in the hostilities. And yet, New Delhi’s diplomats appear strangely reluctant to take any active counter-measures against Beijing.
Why is this country so determined to repeat the mistakes of the Jawaharlal Nehru era, for which our first Prime Minister is still facing flak in certain political quarters? Did not the external affairs ministry take note of reports in July 2025, which quoted then Deputy Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Rahul Singh that “China gave Pakistan live inputs on Indian deployment”?
Does not the Indian government realise that besides the illegal and hostile grabbing of territory and land, China is steadily weakening and crippling India’s economy, industry, trade, commerce and several other sectors of strategic importance?
Just recently, over a week ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested that India be prepared to face an unfolding economic crisis “situation” following the US-Israel attack on Iran. The stark warning emanates from the fuel, fertiliser shortage and the depletion of India’s foreign exchange reserves, as the falling rupee and mounting current account deficit constitute a real challenge to country’s economy. Obviously, the PM’s advisory to “avoid buying gold, cut foreign travel, reduce fuel consumption, less use of edible oil and economise on fertilisers in the field” are all connected to preserve foreign exchange for absolutely essential items.
Here too, however, the China factor comes in. Besides bilateral India-China trade, during the last one year, China has got unusually favourable terms and conditions to swamp the Indian market after five-year cold diplomacy following the June 2020 Galwan slaughter of Indian soldiers. The situation is so bad that India needs to take an emergency policy decision to restrict the import of non-essential trade goods and take a relook at matters connected to manufacturing.
A few instances will show what a difficult situation India is facing due to its own misjudgement, providing China with astronomical profitability to pin New Delhi down in its own land. When it was reported in October 2025 that direct flights between Kolkata and Guangzhou would soon start, traders and businessmen were delighted. These traders mostly import spare parts for mobile phones from China and often visit Guangzhou. Said one: “I go to Guangzhou every four months to purchase spare parts for mobile phones. Now I go via Singapore, which takes ten hours. Direct flights would be faster and cheaper. I can go more frequently”. Are these individual “shopping tours” to China good news for Indian industry?
It was reported that leather goods traders were delighted too as they import leather goods accessories like zips, chains and metallic buttons from China and export finished goods. India is definitely facing a crisis if traders spend precious foreign exchange to make frequent visits to China only to import goods like “spare parts for mobile phones, leather goods’ zips, chains and metallic buttons”. Isn’t it time for the State to crack down on such imports as unnecessary and absolutely non-essential? Has Indian industry been destroyed so much that we are now incapable of producing these items?
It’s time to look at the irreparable damage China has inflicted on Indian economy due to New Delhi’s own diplomatic blunders. India’s deficit, as things stand today, simply cannot be resolved overnight because of its long cumulative adverse trade balance and ceaseless depreciation of Indian rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar. As of now, one US dollar comes to Rs 96.82. Earlier, on December 19, 2024, the rupee breached Rs 85 per $1 and on January 13 it crashed to Rs 86.62. Imagine, in less than 17 months, the rupee has collapsed from Rs 85 to Rs 97 per dollar.
The China situation is growing from bad to worse. Let defence and diplomacy continue at its own pace. But the economy and commerce is now an emergency. The eroding economy will only lead to below-par defence and ineffective diplomacy.
Let Parliament debate the 145th report of the Rajya Sabha standing committee on commerce, which was tabled in July 2018. Here are some excerpts: “While the US and EU have been aggressive over erosion of their domestic industry and loss of employment, the government should be proactive in taking trade defence measures, by imposing restrictions on the import of such Chinese goods which erode our manufacturing capacity".
“The impact of Chinese imports threatens to make India a nation of importers as factories either cut down production or shut down completely. India can ill-afford its industry, including MSMEs, to get annihilated”.
India must therefore cut at least $100 billion from its $115 billion China trade deficit. Independent India can’t afford to get vanquished by foreigners.
The writer is an alumnus of the National Defence College, New Delhi. The views expressed here are personal.