Sympathy in Nagrota, Splintered Legacy in Budgam: J&K’s Twin Electoral Dramas
SRINAGAR: The Nagrota assembly bypoll in Jammu and Kashmir recorded a robust 74.63 percent voter turnout with 73,030 votes polled out of 97,893 eligible voters across ten candidates in the fray.
The Budgam assembly bypoll saw a comparatively lower 49.92 percent turnout with 63,065 votes cast from 126,025 registered voters contesting among 17 candidates, official said.
These simultaneous by-elections, conducted amid tight security, highlighted contrasting electoral enthusiasm between the two constituencies- one falling in Jammu region and the other in the Kashmir Valley- on the same day.
The combined voter turnout across the two constituencies was 60.78 percent, calculated from a total of 136,095 votes polled out of 223,918 eligible voters. Officials reported that voting concluded peacefully in both Nagrota and Budgam constituencies, noting that the relatively lower voter turnout in Budgam was likely due to intense cold conditions prevailing across many parts of the area.
The Budgam bypoll was triggered after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated the seat to retain Ganderbal. He had won Budgam in last year’s elections by a margin of 18,485 votes against PDP’s Aga Muntazir, only to resign it in favour of Ganderbal, where he had previously served as MLA from 2009 to 2014 during his first term as Chief Minister—a constituency long held by his father, Farooq Abdullah, and grandfather, Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah, the founder of the National Conference (NC).
The Nagrota seat became vacant following the death of BJP leader and prominent J&K politician Devender Singh Rana at age 59 after a prolonged illness a year ago. Rana first captured the seat in 2014 as an NC candidate with 23,678 votes (39.03 percent), defeating BJP’s Nand Kishore by 4,048 votes, and retained it in 2024 on a BJP ticket with a commanding 30,472-vote margin over NC’s Joginder Singh (41,465 votes).
In the bustling electoral arena of J&K's 90-member Assembly, the BJP appears set for a resounding triumph in Nagrota, propelled by its dynamic newcomer, Devyani Rana. A youthful and energetic first-time candidate, Rana has, beyond the BJP's robust organisational strength, deftly leveraged a potent wave of public sympathy and strategic manoeuvring to cement her frontrunner status in Nagrota. At the heart of her campaign lay the profound emotional resonance triggered by the passing of her father, Devender Singh Rana—the two-term MLA who commanded deep loyalty in the constituency. This reservoir of goodwill, coupled with her astute positioning amid evolving political alliances, has transformed personal loss into a powerful electoral asset, propelling her toward a commanding lead.
In Budgam, veteran NC nominee Aga Syed Mahmood is poised to bolster his party's tally, despite a formidable challenge from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)'s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi. At 68, Mahmood embodies old-school politics, drawing on decades of grassroots influence as the son of the late Syed Yousuf Al-Moosavi Al-Safavi, the revered founder of Anjuman-e-Sharie Shian, a key Shia socio-religious organization.
The contest turned Budgam into a dramatic family feud, as the Aga clan—Budgam's most influential and revered Shia dynasty—fractured into three bitterly rival factions. Leading the NC charge is Aga Syed Mahmood; the PDP's standard-bearer is the 42-year-old Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, son of the hardline Hurriyat figure Agha Syed Hassan; and rounding out the trio is the BJP's Agha Syed Mohsin, a 35-year-old scion from a parallel branch of the family.
What was once a unified legacy of shared iftar meals and communal harmony has devolved into fierce doorstep canvassing along Budgam's frost-kissed lanes. Barbs flew like winter hailstones, with each contender convinced that the clan's storied legacy will be rewritten exclusively in their own hand.
This splintering reflects deeper socio-political undercurrents in Budgam, a district long defined by its Shia-Sunni demographics and voting patterns. For decades, the area's Shia community staunchly defied separatist boycott calls, turning out in droves while the Sunni majority largely abstained, viewing elections with skepticism amid the Valley's turbulent history. However, the script has dramatically flipped in recent cycles, including the ongoing polls. This time, an estimated 85,000 Sunni voters—energised by the NC's sprawling district-wide rallies and the PDP's viral, incendiary WhatsApp campaigns— are projected to outnumber Shias by a staggering two-to-one ratio.NC strategists, working behind the scenes, have crunched the numbers with quiet confidence: a solid base of 28,000 committed Sunni votes, supplemented by around 10,000 persuadable Shia supporters, should secure a decisive winning margin for Mahmood.
In contrast, the PDP camp has been banking heavily on widespread anti-Omar Abdullah sentiment—fuelled by perceptions of NC's dominance and unfulfilled promises—to swing undecided voters toward Muntazir. As polling day approached, Budgam stood as a microcosm of Kashmir's evolving electoral dynamics, where family loyalties collided with broader communal shifts and partisan fervour.
As per the latest official statistics, Budgam recorded a turn out of 50.01 percent and Nagrota 74.82 percent.
