AA Edit | Trump Confused Over Way out of Iran Mess

The US President Donald Trump, finds himself in a pretty pickle over Iran. He keeps resorting to bombing them to drive the Iranian leadership back to the negotiating table, but they seem prepared to take the beating to their infrastructure and their economy in the hope that the politics over rising oil and gas prices in the US heading into midterm elections will see Mr Trump changing course and finding a way to end the war.

As crude prices climb again to above $85 from pre-war $70 levels they had touched just this month, Iran is ready to squeeze supplies more by playing the one trump card they have learnt to manipulate, which is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that facilitates moving the Gulf’s energy resources to the world.

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, who appear to be running the country more than the formally elected leadership and Ayatollah Mojtaba, who has not been seen in public since the hostilities began on February 28, are threatening to halt all energy exports from the Middle East over the blockade of Iranian ports that the US has put into effect again.

The idea of the US charging toll for safe passage through Hormuz seemed too far-fetched in a war without principles for Mr Trump to take a U-turn but the Iranians and the Omanis are convinced that soon they will be able to charge a fee for any ship to cross. Where this will leave the consumer who must pay for fuel at the pump or gas in the kitchen does not seem to bother the combatants.

It appears Mr Trump has neither crystal-clear military tactics nor a give-and-take diplomatic strategy for a region that has foxed many a US President, leave alone one who may have ambitions to be declared the most powerful man in world history. But the world suffers, and India too because Mr Trump seems always eager to discuss sanctions on the country’s purchase of Russian oil.

The ceasefire agreed to on April 8 is in tatters, the MoU that was to help chart a path for negotiations over 60 days is all but history even as ships in the Hormuz are being attacked sporadically and Iranian military assets on the coastline are being bombarded. And Iran, which may be attracting some counter fire from the region as well, has not been sparing its neighbours from attacks on the grounds that it is aiming only at US bases.

It is a mystery how talks that barely took off can restart and aim for the minimum expectations of stopping the bombing and the missiles. Curiously, Mr Trump may be hoping to gain from a defence summit Wednesday at the US Army War College that will be promoting major investments in battlefield technology. Significantly, the US is running out of Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot and 'Thaad' interceptors while kamikaze boats are being used in latest missions as a cost and missile saving measure.

The only way out of the mess is still the negotiating table, where too issues could get more complicated as Saudi Arabia has not fought shy of expanding it into a bigger regional conflict by attacking the airport in Sanaa, Yemen, which is controlled by the Iran proxies in the Houthis. As Mr Trump oscillates between wanting to do “deals” and threatening to obliterate a whole civilisation, the world is left with the sickening feeling that the missiles will keep flying no matter how keen the regional arbiters are for peace.