AA Edit | Kerala Polls May Prove Tricky For Both LDF, UDF

Kerala broke the jinx of the last several decades and created history when it elected the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) to power for a second consecutive term in 2021. It was a change from the pattern that originated in the early 1980s when the state’s polity for all practical purposes froze into two distinct entities, one the LDF, and the other, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). There have been minor changes in the alignment of small parties but the character of the two fronts remained more or less the same till date.

What is interesting to look for in the results of the forthcoming elections to the state Assembly is whether the LDF wins another consecutive term or the state will go back to its tested practice of changing the government every five years, keeping 2021 as an exception to the rule.

The CPI(M), which leads the LDF has been decimated in the two other strongholds, West Bengal and Tripura, but it has kept its red flag flying high in Kerala because of the care it has taken to keep itself linked to the lives of the people at the grassroots level. From the first Communist government in 1957 to the LDF government which is in power today, the Left parties have adopted the twin line of maintaining their ideological positions, and at the same time, making use of the legislature and the executive to ensure that the last man standing was not left alone and that the government and society are working in unison towards his emancipation.

The outgoing government can be credited with introducing several epoch-making initiatives that bettered the lives of the ordinary people. The government has completed construction of about five lakh houses for the poor, distributed close to five lakh land titles meeting a demand of the last several decades and introduced an extreme poverty eradication programme which helped close to 60,000 persons. It also took concrete measures for the completion of several major infrastructural projects including NH 66.

The Left faces two major challenges for its return to power. One is an anti-incumbency mood prevailing among a section of the people who advocate change. The other is the charge, emanating from the Left fellow travellers, that the LDF made compromises in its core secular credentials. They allege that the ruling coalition, in its desperation for retaining power, played the soft-Hindutva card, trying to propitiate major community organisations. The LDF’s win in the polls will depend on how successfully it convinces the voters about its position and also of its indispensability.

The Congress-led UDF is an equally desperate position in that it has just managed to survive without power at the Centre and in the state for more than a decade; it needs to get back to power. It is banking on the follies of the government, including its acts of omission and commission in incidents of wrongdoing that include the theft of gold from the hill shrine of Sabarimala. The alliance made a reassuring performance in the local body elections held in Nov. and Dec. last year. However, it is finding itself in trouble as internal dissensions have taken mammoth proportions since the Congress and the allies smell that they have a good chance at regaining power. How the partners go back to the basics and work as a team will decide the UDF’s fate in the elections.

The NDA, with the BJP at its head, is running on a roller-coaster ride in the state for quite some time; its vote share goes up and down without displaying a steady pattern in elections to various elected bodies. However, it is making steady inroads in several areas, a fact that was reflected in the alliance winning, for the first time, the election to Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation. The party hopes to win enough seats to play the kingmaker if the two other major alliances fall short of a majority.

The 2026 Kerala Assembly elections promise to create interesting patterns which are unavailable in most other states.