AA Edit | Govt’s Intriguing U-turn On Agnipath

The flavour of the season appears to be the U-turn. After the controversy over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls raised questions and prompted fresh scrutiny of voters’ lists, the much-touted Agnipath scheme is now in the spotlight.

A policy projected as transformational military reform is being rewritten weeks before the first batch of Agniveers completes its four-year tenure. The Union Cabinet has approved an additional two-year engagement for the 75 per cent of Agniveers who would otherwise leave after four years. The provision allowing 25 per cent to enter regular service on merit remains. Those who take the extension will receive higher remuneration and, after six years, another chance to seek regular enrolment, subject to willingness and selection criteria.

The government says the change follows four years of assessment. But if the scheme was so well-conceived, why correct it before its first full cycle has ended?

The timing of the Agniveer U-turn is difficult to ignore. Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh have traditionally been major recruitment grounds for the armed forces. In these states, joining the armed forces is not merely a career or a matter of family tradition and social prestige. It is also a source of employment for rural youth.

The first batch of Agniveers was staring at unemployment within two months. The Navy's first batch was scheduled to exit on November 21, followed by the Air Force on December 25 and the Army on December 31. The government was obviously running out of time to make any adjustments before thousands of young men, after four years of military training and service, returned to civilian life without any assurance of permanent employment. In short, in regions where jobs are scarce, thousands of young men would once again find themselves back in the ranks of the unemployed. There was another dimension at play. During the CJP protests, videos had surfaced showing Agniveers expressing support for the agitation. With waves of protests crashing relentlessly against the saffron citadel, the possibility of these trained young men lending support to it would have created an extremely uncomfortable situation for the establishment. There is also an electoral angle. With elections approaching in these three states, the political situation is hardly comfortable for the BJP. In Uttarakhand, the burden of anti-incumbency seemed to be weighing heavily on the ruling party. In Punjab, rebuilding its political presence will be an uphill climb. And in Uttar Pradesh, even the BJP's staunchest supporter is keeping his fingers crossed.

When launched on June 14, 2022, the Agniveer scheme was projected as a “transformative reform” and a “Game Changer”. But within the military establishment, it apparently came as a “bolt out of the blue”, as former Army chief Gen. Manoj Mukund Naravane revealed in his now contentious memoir, Four Stars of Destiny. According to the former Army chief, the scheme was in fact a far broader and substantially altered version of a proposal he had mooted in 2020 under the title “Tour of Duty”. He had suggested a limited recruitment model for the Army, but was taken by surprise when the idea resurfaced in an expanded form of the Agnipath scheme, covering all three services.

Agnipath was billed as a way to lower the armed forces’ average age, create a younger military, and reduce pension liabilities. Recruits would serve four years, with only 25 per cent retained; the remaining 75 per cent would leave with a Seva Nidhi package but no pension or an assured career. The government dismissed mounting criticism. Now, barely four years later, it has changed the rules. A supposedly non-negotiable military reform has been substantially diluted. Call it a recalibration, but it is unmistakably a U-turn.