AA Edit | Challenges Abound After 12 Years of Modi Sarkar

To have led his party and alliance to victory in a third successive national general election was a phenomenal achievement for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly considering that the stakes involved only seem to have got bigger each time. It is moot whether he is India’s longest-serving Prime Minister, which comes with the rider that his record 4,400 days in office are for an “elected” PM, which the esteemed Jawaharlal Nehru was not when he was in office in 1947-1952.

The years rolling by in the Gregorian calendar are more chronological conveniences than grand milestones and yet they must be celebrated given how bitterly polarised the nation is politically in these modern times. However, truth to tell, India’s Goldilocks period economically, which could be said to have started from the depths of 2014, is over even though India, in its post-Covid recovery, is still the fastest growing major economy.

The headwinds blowing against the economy are global today. To perform in difficult conditions when the nation’s energy bills, especially as India imports 80 per cent of its oil and gas requirements, is going to be the biggest challenge as Mr Modi aims to complete his third term. Add the rising bills for merchandise imports and the nation can be under pressure regarding BoP and CAD positions even if there is no real cause for alarm with the CAD projected to be not far above 1.5 per cent of GDP in FY2027.

The GDP numbers alone are not going to reflect comfort as they used to, not because they are bound to drop in the near future along with India’s global ranking, which has slipped to sixth from fourth, but because GDP growth does not guarantee better employment percentages, particularly as the numbers are invariably enormous in the world’s most populous nation. It is in job creation that India has lagged which shows in dissatisfaction among youth as evidenced in recent events.

It was the duty of the Opposition to point out even during a time of celebratory gestures towards the man who rose to national prominence from stints as Gujarat CM that inflation, unemployment and agrarian distress continue to persist. There is no silver bullet for anyone to fire and solve such complex issues. The fact remains that the 2025 unemployment rate — at 4.22 per cent of the labour force (highest was 7.86% at the height of the Covid pandemic in 2020) — is reflective of a burgeoning problem simply because the basic numbers are so huge.

Given the fact there is no end in sight to the Iran war and importing energy through the Strait of Hormuz is going to remain problematical even as nations prepare to buy their crude oil at prices nearer $100 a barrel for some time to come, India would have to hit its straps to find alternatives. India’s record of sloth in terms of pushing for more nuclear power is generally indicative of the lack of will to adapt quickly enough to rising challenges.

Notwithstanding all the problems, India can pride itself in achievements that were unprecedented in building infrastructure, especially roads, welfare delivery through direct transfer and financial inclusion. The nation has come a long way on those counts, as also in terms of a far more pragmatic and diversified foreign policy that placed India’s permanent interests ahead of all other considerations.

The report card of 12 years would show many positives against the few shortcomings that may, however, be pulling down the confidence of rising generations. As a nation with an organic growth that has defied very high population figures, India has stood the test of time. Much more can be done, say with private sector investments that are tardy despite sitting on cash reserves. Suffice it to say that the Indian people have not been irretrievably let down by their leaders in a dozen years, despite a disastrous demonetisation.