K.C. Singh| Modi To Engage Nordics, But Core Concerns Vary

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s four-nation trip to Europe from May 15 to 20 will begin with a stopover in Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital, on his way to Oslo. He will attend the 3rd India-Nordic Summit, followed by bilateral visits to Norway, Sweden, Netherlands and Italy.

Unlike his past travels, a new international environment now prevails. Consider the Abu Dhabi visit. Hostilities in the Gulf region are merely on hold while Iran and the United States negotiate a permanent ceasefire and deal. President Donald Trump has declared Iran’s response “totally unacceptable”. Cracks within the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council and open Iran-UAE confrontation have altered the geopolitics. The United Arab Emirates is now openly aligning with the US and Israel. Saudi Arabia, the GCC’s most powerful and populous member, has moved closer to Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey while maintaining its US outreach.

It is therefore debatable whether a prime ministerial stopover in Abu Dhabi is desirable from a security or diplomatic perspective. Making Fujairah port operational for repatriating the Indian diaspora does not require the Prime Minister’s presence. Instead, it could make India appear partisan in the ongoing conflict.

The India-Nordic summits began in 2018, with the last one held in May 2022 in Copenhagen, months after the Ukraine war began. The key issues then were international peace and security, green transition, climate change, the blue economy, innovation, digitalisation and Arctic and polar research. These themes still persist, though new factors have emerged.

One is President Trump’s repeated threat to annex Greenland, controlled by Denmark, without ruling out military force against a fellow NATO member. Another is the rapidly deteriorating Nordic-Israel relationship. In May 2024, Norway joined Spain and Ireland in recognising Palestine as an independent state. Two months later, Norway joined South Africa’s International Court of Justice case against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This has escalated further, with some countries even barring Israeli tourists. In the early 1990s, Norway attempted to resolve the Palestinian issue through the 1993 Oslo Accords. Under Mr Netanyahu, Israel has effectively discarded them.

On both these issues, India has either been evasive or, regarding Israel, tilted towards it. Of the five Nordic nations — Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland — all except Norway and Iceland are members of the European Union, though all are NATO members. At a time of global disruption, worsened by US tariffs and the wars in Ukraine and the Gulf, the Nordic nations would seek not only trade, technology and investment but also strategic clarity and Indian support. India’s reluctance in dealing with US threats and its perceived tilt towards the Israel-US alliance undermines its image as a rising power capable of countering global disruption.

Finland, Norway and Sweden have been pooling research and commercialisation efforts in advanced materials, photonics and chip design. India would seek collaboration in semiconductor production, although the Nordic countries still lag behind major players such as Taiwan, the US, South Korea and Japan. However, joint ventures could help both sides bridge the widening gap between their capabilities and global advances in Artificial Intelligence and chip design.

The Nordic semiconductor ecosystem has given the region some leadership in the Internet of Things (IoT) and low-power technologies such as Bluetooth Low Energy (LE). Quantum technologies, low-temperature physics and vacuum-based manufacturing would also interest India. Indo-Nordic trade has mostly been rising. India-Sweden trade increased from $2.86 billion in 2016 to $7 billion last year. India-Denmark trade stood at $5.3 billion in 2023, while trade with Norway doubled over the last three years.

Commercial and economic ties with some Nordic nations are particularly significant. India is Sweden’s third-largest trading partner in Asia. The 2009 Defence Cooperation Agreement led to the Swedish company Saab AB establishing a factory in Haryana to manufacture Carl Gustaf shoulder-fired weapons. Nearly 300 Swedish companies now operate in India.

Norway is Western Europe’s biggest oil producer, exporting 95 per cent of its oil and gas output. Europe obtains around 30 per cent of its oil consumption from Norway. Producing 2 million barrels per day, Norway ranks 12th globally.

Environmentalists have been urging the government to avoid expanding oil exploration in the Arctic region. Notably, Norway relies on renewable energy for 90 per cent of its energy needs.

President Trump’s punitive tariffs and threats to annex Greenland are influencing domestic politics across Europe. In Denmark, a centrist-socialist coalition recently lost elections, allowing a centrist-right grouping to attempt government formation. Immigration is reshaping the electoral agenda of almost all political parties, including those on the Left.

Among the countries the Prime Minister will visit, the Netherlands occupies a special place. It is India’s third-largest export destination globally. In 2024-25, total goods trade with the Netherlands reached $27.8 billion, of which Indian exports accounted for $22.7 billion. Exports included petroleum products, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications instruments, leather and textile products, marine goods, rice, spices, gems and jewellery. Since 2000, Dutch companies have invested $55 billion in India, while Indian companies have invested $28 billion in the Netherlands. Key discussion areas include ports and shipping, agriculture and food processing, water management, urban development and smart cities.

Prime Minister Modi’s Italian visit is expected to review standard bilateral issues, including implementation of the 2025 Strategic Plan of Action. This will include co-production and security-related matters. Mr Modi and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have met several times over the last two years during the G-7 and G-20 summits. Discussions may cover defence production, technology transfer, energy transition and space collaboration.

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, proposed during the G-20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, also requires reassessment. With emerging alignments in the Gulf, the project increasingly appears difficult to implement. Italy’s Indian diaspora numbers around 200,000, mostly Punjabi Hindus and Sikhs working in the agricultural sector.

Bilateral trade since 2021-22 has fluctuated between $13 billion and $14 billion annually. Remittances from the diaspora last year totalled 594.02 million euros.

Considering Prime Minister Modi’s own advice to the nation on curbing energy consumption and international travel, the necessity of this European tour may invite questions. He could arguably lead by example by holding the India-Nordic summit online. The Nordic nations are themselves distracted by Mr Trump’s threats, the Ukraine war and Israel’s anti-Palestinian belligerence. With the Artificial Intelligence era unfolding, Mr Modi could also demonstrate non-personal diplomacy through virtual conferencing.