Kamal Davar | Time To Rebuild Relationship With Dhaka, With Eye On China & Pak

In a world which is virtually at war with itself, South Asia remains one of the world’s most geopolitically stressed regions.

India, the leading military and economic power in South Asia, faces two major adversaries: China and Pakistan. Now, another one may be emerging.

Bangladesh, our once friendly eastern neighbour which the Indian Army had helped to liberate in December 1971, has, forget about gratitude, turned openly anti-India with the forced ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. That these developments took India’s diplomats and intelligence agencies by surprise should be a matter of concern for New Delhi.

One wonders how ordinary Bangladeshis, including radical elements, can forget the brutal terror unleashed by the West Pakistan forces on them over 50 years ago: one of the worst genocides in human history in 1970-71. How can they forget the over two million East Pakistanis killed, lakhs of women raped or violated, and the insulting treatment of their hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was actually elected Prime Minister of Pakistan?

Can Bangladesh ever forget around 4,000 Indian soldiers had laid down their lives to liberate their homeland? In the decades that followed, successive Indian governments have gone out of their way to help Bangladesh, economically and otherwise.

The current anti-India feelings fanned by the Jamaat and other radical elements are thus hard to fathom. There are also student activists and others working as proxies of China and Pakistan’s ISI, with suspected encouragement by the United States, which is supposedly India’s strategic partner.

It is also true that all through these decades since 1971, and despite their role in war crimes and other atrocities, Pakistan’s ISI and the military have maintained close contacts with Bangladesh’s Directorate-General of Forces Intelligence. Were the Indian intelligence agencies sleeping?

Did successive governments in India make a strategic mistake by putting all their eggs in one basket: that of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League? It might have been better to establish and maintain contacts with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and even the Jamaat-e-Islami.

After the outbreak in Dhaka in July-August 2024 forced Sheikh Hasina to flee to New Delhi and seek shelter, the condition of the minorities in Bangladesh -- Hindus, Christians, Buddhists -- worsened considerably, with frequent killings, torching of their temples, homes and businesses. The interim administration of Muhammad Yunus was as radicalised as the Jamaat and didn’t act in time to quell the violence.

Many Hindu families are reportedly waiting to cross the border into India. Hindus constitute nearly eight per cent of the nation’s population; and Buddhists and Christians together comprise just one per cent; with their numbers gradually declining over the years, with many seeking shelter in India. Earlier, Bengali pride often transcended religious affiliations; but that is unfortunately no longer the case. There is no doubt that Pakistan is now busy fanning anti-India sentiments.

Given this anti-India climate in Bangladesh, what really are the options open to New Delhi?

The simmering student protests that led to regime change has now quietened, but violent radicalism is still on the rise. The pro-India Awami League was banned from contesting the general election, which eased the way for Tarique Rahman’s BNP to win and for him to become Prime Minister.

An urgent priority for India will be to swiftly reinforce the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, also known as “Chicken’s Neck”, a 22x60-km stretch at its narrowest point and the only land link from India’s mainland to the Northeast. India shares a 4,086-km boundary with Bangladesh, nearly 80 per cent of which is fenced; while 800 km remains to be fenced, mostly in riverine and difficult areas. In case of any mischief by Dhaka, at the prompting of Islamabad, India may have to take some kinetic action. The point to remember in our security calculus is that China and Pakistan will always try to expand their military and economic footprint inside Bangladesh to influence the eastern front, which also impacts India’s Northeast.

India must unequivocally convey to Bangladesh in clear-cut terms that it doesn’t covet even an inch of Bangladeshi soil. Also, India has been more than accommodating in negotiations over Ganga river waters (called Padma in Bangladesh), water- sharing, the differences over the Farakka Barrage and over land transfers in the border region. In December 2026, the Ganga river waters treaty is due to expire, and Dhaka is extremely keen to renew it. However, India too requires more water for its agricultural needs.

New Delhi must also convince Washington that it should not encourage Pakistan to meddle in Bangladesh. Notwithstanding the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump’s and his ever-changing geopolitical positions, India must influence the US establishment to be wary of China’s games in this region.

India must, in addition, keep up its economic assistance to Bangladesh, including in the supply of essential foodgrains, power generation and electricity. In the past three months, especially after the BNP’s Tarique Rahman took over as Prime Minister, New Delhi has taken some crucial steps to reset ties with Dhaka. A senior politician, former Union minister Dinesh Trivedi, has been sent as high commissioner, with Cabinet rank. High-powered delegations led by the Lok Sabha Speaker, Om Birla, foreign secretary Vikram Misri and the RAW chief have visited Dhaka. This momentum to improve ties must be continued.

The recent address by Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi, on the second anniversary of her ouster, widely covered on social media, provoked Dhaka considerably, and might prompt India to disallow such speeches in future. A potential flashpoint looms over her plans to return to Bangladesh in December. For India, an emerging global power, a reactive policy won’t work, particularly in South Asia. Testing times lie ahead for India on its eastern front.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency, and is a strategic analyst