Kamal Davar | Dhaka Forgets Its Own History Amid Friction, Reset Of Ties Vitally Needed

Political leaders often exhibit short memories for selfish ends, but nations normally don’t and must never forget their history. Unfortunately, India’s long-standing friendly eastern neighbour is forgetting New Delhi’s sterling contribution to its birth as an independent nation in December 1971, when over 3,000 Indian soldiers made the supreme sacrifice to liberate it from the barbarism of the Pakistani military. The forces in East Pakistan, commanded by Lt. Gen. Tikka Khan (known as the “Butcher of Bangladesh”) and Lt. Gen. A.A.K. Niazi (who surrendered in Dhaka on December 16, 1971), murdered nearly a million East Pakistanis and raped lakhs of women, in one of the worst genocides in human history. How can any nation forget such scars? Is it the rise of radicalism in Bangladeshi society or some other sinister geopolitical game that is behind this?

That the instability in Bangladesh, after Seikh Hasina’s ouster in August 202, impacts India adversely can’t be underplayed. As Sheikh Hasina was unceremoniously removed, ostensibly by a student-led Gen Z revolution with the Army looking the other way, most strategic analysts (including in India) were taken by surprise. Why were India’s diplomats posted there, as well as the intelligence agencies, caught napping? Were they not aware that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and others were systematically radicalising Bangladeshi society for years? The ISI had been keeping contacts with Bangladesh’s Directorate-General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) for years.

After Sheikh Hasina’s departure for New Delhi, the killings of Hindus in cold blood, the torching of Hindu temples, shops and homes, the destruction of Buddhist temples and Christian churches has been on the rise, with the Bangladesh authorities looking the other way. That Pakistan’s devious games since the past year or two has met with rousing anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh has been an unqualified success can’t be ruled out. That Pakistan’s rabidly anti-India de facto ruler, Field Marshal Asim Munir, will redouble his efforts to further deepen the Delhi-Dhaka divide is an unfortunate reality. From all accounts, a China-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis is being given concrete shape. India therefore needs to analyse all the options available to it to not allow any further slide in Delhi-Dhaka ties despite the fact that India’s options currently appear to be limited.

General elections are due to be held in Bangladesh in February 2026, which will signal the overall political shape and policies of Dhaka -- whether ultra-radical or moderate in its orientation. Sheikh Hasina’s pro-India secular Awami League has been illegally banned from contesting these elections and the other major party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is being wooed by the ultra-radical Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to join hands to fight the coming elections.

The sudden, unexpected passing away of former three-time PM Begum Khaleda Zia, the BNP’s supremo, will impact the coming general election in a significant manner. Her son, Tarique Rahman, who was in exile in London for the past 17 years, had returned to Dhaka shortly before his mother’s passing and assumed the stewardship of her party. Whether he will be able to control his party will perhaps be known only after the results are announced. While initially the BNP was seen as somewhat anti-India, it is hoped that if it returns to power, Tarique Rahman may take a more mature, balanced stance towards India, especially since Bangladesh is dependent on India for its many needs, like rice and other foodgrains, power, electricity, etc. At the moment, the policy of economic leverage presents the only hope for India to reset its relations with Bangladesh, which has now been overtaken by Islamist radicalism and persecution of its minorities.

It was a sensible decision by the Government of India to send external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar with a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to represent India at Begum Khaleda Zia’s funeral ceremony in Dhaka. It can safely be surmised that channels of communication from New Delhi to Dhaka would have opened between Tarique Rehman and the external affairs ministry. That Pakistan’s machinations, even on behalf of the United States, will only intensify in our eastern flank cannot be questioned.

India, in addition, needs to dispatch some renowned Bengali leaders, primarily Muslims, to visit Dhaka and other regions in Bangladesh to try and spread goodwill between the two nations and explain to the local populace there about the oneness of our culture and heritage. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee should be included as a key member of such a delegation. But notwithstanding all these soft power measures, India will have to deploy additional armed forces and equipment in case a flare-up occurs, whether along the Siliguri Corridor or anywhere along the 4,000-km-long international border. Some business magnates should also be prepared to visit Bangladesh and liaise with top Bangladeshi businessmen about possible economic cooperation. India will have prevail upon its “strategic partner”, the United States, to come clean on any mischief it may be contemplating in Bangladesh, by using Pakistan as its proxy, to embarrass India. In any case, India will have to endeavour zealously to balance China’s ever-growing economic footprint in Bangladesh through economic initiatives or sustaining current economic linkages.

India is now facing a major challenge across its entire eastern sector, which may have ramifications in Northeast India as well. The government will have to devote adequate attention to tackling and hopefully resolving any political and economic problems in the “Seven Sisters” region, and be prepared to counter any mischief-making by Pakistan and Bangladesh with alacrity. New Delhi needs to analyse all options available to it over Bangladesh -- both kinetic and economic measures. If India’s celebrated soft power measures do not succeed, then it must be prepared for other options in case the ultra-radicals in Bangladesh go overboard with their anti-India activities.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency, and is a strategic analyst