G. Babu Jayakumar | Dravidian Majors Hold Sway in TN Poll Politics

As the bugle for the electoral race is sounded in Tamil Nadu for assembling the next legislature, a hazy picture emerges of the lineup in two main rainbow coalitions and two lone burrowers, portending an acrimonious time at the hustings. Though some parties, or rather most of the key players, have already launched their campaigns ahead of the honchos of the Election Commission of India coming down to finalise the nitty-gritty relating to polls, the coalitions have not been finalised and sealed. For, the major contenders to the throne, the DMK and the AIADMK, find recent changes in the contours of the turf throwing up new challenges and confusing conundrums.

When the AIADMK general secretary Edap-padi K. Palaniswami was at the residence of Union home minister Amit Shah in New Delhi the other day to discuss the elections all alone without his regular retinue of senior party colleagues accompanying him to such meetings, it raised questions in the minds of the people in Tamil Nadu. Since electoral alliances, essentially one led by the DMK and the other by the AIADMK, are normally struck in Chennai with representatives of national parties flying down to hold discussions, doubts have already risen over the composition of the future government if the AIADMK-NDA coalition wins the elections. Palaniswami maintains that it will be an AIADMK government headed by him, while the BJP honchos, starting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have been openly proclaiming that it would be a NDA regime.

Despite this persisting dichotomy, there has been no dilution in the open bonhomie between the AIADMK and BJP leaders sharing the stage but talking in different voices — some about forming an AIADMK government and others about an NDA government. No one seems to be bothered about getting a clarification on it probably because it is obvious, going by the track record of the BJP in other states, that if its alliance wins, it will be a BJP regime, whether Palaniswami heads it or someone from the BJP is deputed for that. The stark truth gets reflected in the speeches of Chief Minister and DMK president M.K. Stalin, who has been dubbing the coming election as a fight between Tamil Nadu and Delhi, raising the hackles of the nascent Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) president Vijay.

Vijay, one of the two lone burrowers — the other one being Seeman of the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) in the state — comes up with the question because he wants to send across the message that he is the only contender for the throne against the ruling DMK. What Vijay forgets is that the AIADMK-led alliance comprises the AMMK of TTV Dinakaran, Tamil Maanila Congress of G K Vasan, Indiya Jananayaka Katchi of Paariventhar and Puthiya Needhi Katchi of A.C. Shanmugham, besides the BJP. Maybe Vijay believes that the BJP has no presence in Tamil Nadu at all because he has earlier said that he would criticise only parties that are in the race when asked why he has nothing to say against the BJP, whom he has initially labelled as a ‘policy rival.’

So, that should leave a huge pack of 18 parties in the DMK basket and with no confusion on who would lead the government if that alliance triumphs — it will be the DMK with M.K. Stalin at the helm — it might look like an idyllic alliance. But the Congress, which is assumed to be the largest and most popular partner of the DMK, had been creating problems over seat sharing and by demanding a share in power, which had delayed the finalisation of the alliance and kick starting of the joint campaign. Though the differences have been ironed out with top leaders intervening in the work of negotiating teams, they could resurface any time, given the nature of politicians’ ambitions and self-importance and with a couple of parties like Puthiya Tamilagam yet to decide where to go.

As of now, in the long list of DMK allies are the known national parties like the Congress, CPM and CPI and other State outfits like the VCK led by Thol Thirumavalavan, MDMK of Vaiko, Makkal Neethi Maiyam of Kamal Haasan and the DMDK that was launched by late actor Vijayakanth and now headed by his wife Premalatha Vijayakanth, besides a host of other parties. Muslim parties like IUML, Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, SDPI and Manithaneya Jananayaga Katchi and those representing specific community groups like the Kongunadu Makkal Katchi, Tamilaga Valvurimai Katchi, Manithaneya Jananayaga Katchi, Christhuva Nallenna Iyakkam and Adhi Tamilar Peravai and a few others are also with the DMK.

Many of those candidates would be contesting the polls on the DMK election symbol, the ‘rising sun,’ which means that the ECI would add the votes polled by them to the DMK account. The DMK would support those candidates by providing them the backup and manpower required at the polling booths and during campaign and they would be bound by the whips issued in the Assembly, if they get elected.

This picture-perfect line up of contesting coalitions, one led by the DMK and the other by the AIADMK, taking each other on and the lone burrowers, the TVK and NTK, now could change only if the Congress or any other party decides to align with the TVK that is not averse to the idea of being bountiful in power-sharing. The NTK has not had ties with other parties so far not only because it would like to stand on its own but also because no other party wants to get entangled with the outfit that talks about Tamil nationalism and openly supports the LTTE.

The TVK, however, could be irresistible to some parties if it manages to win some seats or poll a huge number of votes across constituencies. With a few Congress leaders evidently evincing interest in going with the TVK with a hope of getting a share in power, the possibility of the DMK-Congress ties snapping loomed over the horizon for some time. But not anymore. It does appear that the status quo prevails in the DMK-Congress combine at least for the 2026 polls. That could change before the nation goes to the polls in 2029. As of now, it remains a fight between fronts led by the two Dravidian majors.