Dev 360 | Hormuz, Hearth; Flames To Fires: Always Have ‘Plan B’ | Patralekha Chatterjee

If the ongoing war in the Middle East has taught India one brutal lesson, it is this: every strategic essential -- energy, food, fertilisers, medicines, transport -- demands a “Plan B”. Crises --a pandemic or a war – can strike without warning. Resilience is about being less import-dependent, sourcing from many geographies, mapping every chokepoint and carving alternative routes. “Plan B” matters even if this conflict winds down.

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 lit a fuse. Nearly a month on, its footprint affects economies far away, hitting millions of children and families. A global energy crunch looms, threatening to deepen inequality further. Talk about a truce continues. So does the bombing. Will the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea route that carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, continue to offer selective access? What about energy security? No one quite knows what lies ahead.

More and more of our everyday life is impacted by a conflict thousands of miles away. It is not just petrol panic and long LPG queues. The war in West Asia is impacting midday meals to MRI scans.

Take LPG, the cooking fuel which powers millions of household kitchens across India. India consumes around 31-33 million tonnes of LPG annually, but domestic production covers only about 40 per cent. As I write, diplomatic negotiations between India and Iran have led to four Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG successfully crossing the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began. More are reportedly on the way. Yet many vessels remain stranded. The government has introduced longer booking gaps for cylinders.

Those with piped natural gas (PNG) are relatively insulated for the time being. Some have bought induction cookers as backup. For millions of frontline workers and street hawkers, these options simply don’t exist. India imports roughly 60 per cent of its total LPG consumption, most of which historically come from Gulf/Middle East suppliers. Almost all these Gulf-origin LPG shipments must physically pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach India.

The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 90 per cent of India's imported LPG from Gulf suppliers.

The war’s chokehold has delayed refills, forcing many anganwadis and school kitchens to switch to firewood. An anganwadi worker from rural Gonda, Uttar Pradesh, told me her centre is attached to a school and the food is being cooked in makeshift chulhas. She had bought an induction cooker for her own home but it doesn’t work when there are power cuts. Once when she was cooking matar pulao, the power went off. She had to light a chulha to finish cooking. A midday meal worker from Karnataka said many schools, especially in rural pockets, had reverted to wood-fired stoves due to long waiting periods for LPG cylinders. Over 90 per cent of the 2.7 million mid-day meal cook-cum-helpers are women. Firewood was used even before the crisis; now, more are returning to it.

The cooking fuel shortage ripples wider: Surat textile units are scaling back as migrants from UP, Bihar and other states return home unable to afford refills; restaurants trim menus or close early; families face a Rs 60 official price hike on domestic LPG cylinders, black-market premiums are soaring; delivery riders’ margins vanish with petrol spikes; FMCG firms warn of rising costs for detergents, biscuits, toothpaste, packaging.

Newspaper reports say an LPG shortage in Kerala has triggered an exodus of migrant workers, primarily from Assam and West Bengal. They call it “reverse migration”. Migration experts, like Dr Benoy Peter, executive director of Ernakulam’s Centre for Migration and Inclusive Development, however, offer a more nuanced picture, spelling out other triggers. “It is not reverse migration. LPG shortage is one among many factors behind this temporary migration. Assembly elections loom in many states from where these migrant workers come. There is also ongoing work on SIR (Special Intensive Revision.) The cooking fuel crisis has hit Kerala’s hospitality industry; many restaurants and eateries are affected. They are making do with firewood, diesel. Some eateries cannot afford to have many workers; they are letting them go temporarily.” In a globalised, crisis-afflicted world, migration is a resilience strategy in agriculture-dependent village India, also severely affected by climate change. But the city can surprise too. When a crisis hits, work dries up and migrant workers must go back home.

Fertiliser shortages add another layer. West Asia supplies a huge chunk of India’s fertiliser imports. Disruptions have caused reported spikes in global prices. If farmers reduce use, crop yields could drop sharply, leading to future food shortages and worsening malnutrition.

There can be no universal “Plan B”. Contingency plans must factor in India’s vast informal workforce, the country's multiple vulnerabilities.

"India’s LPG vulnerability is rooted in the structure of its dependence. While LPG production has been ramped up in the short term, this has come at the cost of diverting other hydrocarbon streams into the LPG pool. A credible ‘Plan B’ cannot rely on a single solution, but must combine diversification, storage, and demand flexibility. Supplier diversification, such as expanding term contracts with the United States and other non-Gulf producers. A shift already underway reflected in increased imports from the US. It can reduce geographic concentration, even if it entails higher logistics costs. At the same time, India may look to assess the scope for enhancing domestic LPG output and expand LPG storage capacity, as existing facilities at Mangalore and Visakhapatnam remain limited relative to demand.

Demand-side flexibility through PNG expansion, electric cooking, and alternative fuels can help ease pressure. However, tighter LNG (liquified natural gas) markets, particularly following reported damage at (Qatar’s) Ras Laffan, also constrain the PNG option. Ultimately, resilience lies not in eliminating dependence, but in managing it better. The current crisis highlights the need to treat LPG not just as a fuel, but as a critical component of household welfare and economic stability,” says Dr Parul Bakshi, fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, Middle East. Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG terminal, was hit by Iranian missiles and drones and suffered substantial damage.

The war has made energy insecurity real: smoke in women’s eyes while cooking for children, fuel frenzy, inflation, the threat of lower harvests ahead. India has some oil stockpiles, but cooking gas reserves are thinner. For the poor, quick alternatives are hard. Some have turned to coal, with its health and environmental costs.

The bottom line, however, is clear. India must accelerate renewables, build stronger buffers at home, and reduce dependence on a single chokepoint. Resilience built now will protect the weakest when the global shocks arrive again.