Dev 360 | Heatwaves Amid Crisis In West Asia: Can We Cope? | Patralekha Chatterjee

Political disputes may sometimes yield to negotiation. But you can’t bargain with heatwaves.

April’s heatwave has arrived as India grapples with seismic changes from the escalating West Asia conflict, rippling into all sectors of the economy, affecting jobs, household budgets, even the kitchen, alongside the political heat of Assembly elections. The surging temperatures are compounding these pressures: on livelihoods, health, family finances, and the national mood.

Temperatures across New Delhi are expected to stay above 40°C for several days in the coming week. Thirty two of Uttar Pradesh’s 75 districts are under an official heatwave alert, with temperatures crossing 44°C. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts continuing heatwave conditions over parts of north, central and eastern India. New research shows humid heat -- high temperature with humidity -- is emerging as a dangerous climate threat. Unlike dry heat, humidity prevents sweat from evaporating, making even moderate temperatures deadly India’s worsening heatwave crisis is no longer just an environmental concern, it is a deepening economic and social emergency, says New Delhi-based Centre for Financial Accountability. What was once an occasional extreme event is becoming a structural feature of India’s climate reality.

Extreme heat acts as a multiplier, deepening discomfort, amplifying geopolitical and political stress. Informal workers lose out on work and incomes, not just due to the West Asia conflict-fuelled LPG crisis but also due to heat stress, while the middle-class salaried brace for higher electricity bills alongside stagnant incomes. Both groups are caught in the crossfire of climate, conflict and politics. Citizens feel squeezed from all sides: health risks outdoors, rising electricity bills indoors, and political turbulence everywhere.

Heat is now a constant subject of conversation, far beyond Ahmedabad’s pioneering 2013 Heat Action Plan, a response to the deadly 2010 heatwave which led to 1,300-plus deaths.

The good news: state and city leaderships in India are coming up with their own heat strategies.

Tamil Nadu has notified heatwave as a state-specific disaster, enabling the use of State Disaster Response Fund resources for relief, compensation and preparedness. So have Kerala, Telangana and several other states. Tamil Nadu also has a Green School initiative with cool roof coatings that reduce indoor temperatures and air-conditioned rest lounges for gig workers. One of the gram panchayats in Kozhikode, Kerala, has developed its own heat action plan, a one-of-a-kind village-level initiative to deal with surging temperatures. Ahmedabad has pioneered heat insurance schemes with the Self-Employed Women's Association (SEWA), where informal women workers pay a small premium and receive automatic payouts when temperatures cross dangerous thresholds. Mumbai and Jodhpur have set up cooling stations in schools and community halls. Kerala has introduced UV heat alerts via social media and WhatsApp, helping residents plan outdoor exposure.

The bad news: India’s Heat Action Plans predominantly still focus on emergency responses, issuing alerts, opening cooling centres, and managing daytime exposure. They fail to address the changing nature of heat itself, especially rising nighttime temperatures, the urban heat island effect and the urgent need for long-term structural adaptation.

Many of these prickly issues came up for discussion at the recent Global Heat and Cooling Forum in New Delhi, organised by the US-based Natural Resources Defence Council with India's Department of Science and Technology, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure and other Indian partners.

As Harvard public health expert Satchit Balsari wrote in an essay for a study (Critical Perspectives of Extreme Heat in India) by Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard, released at the forum: “An estimated three-fourths of the country’s workforce, roughly 380 million people, are engaged in heat-exposed labour, spanning agriculture, construction, and a wide range of informal occupations underpinning about half of India’s GDP. In the near future, the scale of exposure is set to intensify: up to 200 million people in the country could face lethal heat conditions as early as 2030, while rising heat stress is projected to account for tens of millions of lost jobs globally.”

But here is the inconvenient truth: India’s capacity to adapt to this remains glaringly unequal -- only about eight per cent of households in the country have access to air-conditioning, “leaving the majority of the population to cope with rising temperatures through limited or ineffective means. This raises a more fundamental set of questions about how heat is understood, measured, and acted upon across science, policy and planning”, Mr Balsari points out.

Although emerging evidence from India suggests that heat action plans may reduce heat-related mortality, it remains unclear whether they effectively reach -- and protect -- the most vulnerable members of society, argue scholars Robert Douglas Meade, Aditya Valiathan Pillai and Satchit Balsari in an essay titled “How hot is too hot?” in the study. Much-discussed strategies like mandatory work breaks, occupational safety equipment and cooling centres, changes in school timings and transport schedules, all affect the revenues of businesses and wages of the vulnerable. “There are incentives for employers and employees to circumvent heat-specific costs and effectively sacrifice health to protect business and livelihoods,” the researchers point out,

On the ground, there is little discussion on the link between heat and equity. Take the much-talked about “Cool Roofs”. While solar reflective paint (cool roof coating) is often marketed as a cost-effective solution for reducing heat in India, the application process and high-quality materials can indeed make it a significant investment for even middle-class Indians. On the other side, the painter, part of the informal economy, often has to do the cool roof coating in scorching heat. One can offer water, frequent breaks, shade but it is still not comfortable work. Most workers in India’s informal economy which powers the country's economic growth do not have access to enforceable workplace protection.

This is the stark reality that India’s policy planners must confront. And as Sheela Patel, activist, academic and founder of Mumbai-based SPARC (Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centres), puts it: “Informality is going to exponentially increase in every country. Extreme heat sometimes comes with wind and rain. This is the face of disaster for poor people.”

The extent to which heat action plans benefit the most vulnerable remains unclear. Strategies like mandatory work breaks, cooling centres, or altered school timings all carry economic costs, creating incentives to cut corners and sacrifice health for wages. Informal workers, without enforceable protections, bear the brunt -- losing income and paying medical bills when heat overwhelms them.

How India manages extreme heat, alongside other challenges, will shape its future. You can’t negotiate with heat. Yet you can mandate worker protection, including for women, and investment in climate-resilient infrastructure now.