Bharat Bhushan | Bihar Ballot Shock: Power Recast, Perceptions Jolted

The Bihar Assembly election verdict, especially the scale and swiftness of the sweep of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) victory, was completely unforeseen. It was not just a victory but a political earthquake.

The results defied all pre-poll expectations, even though most of the poll surveys got the broad direction of the outcome right. They upended caste arithmetic while exposing the Opposition’s strategic shortcomings. They underlined that the political momentum needs to be painstakingly built and that organisational discipline and narrative clarity are essential to win an election. The NDA displayed both in ample measure.

The results showcase the Bharatiya Janata Party’s ability to shape regional political dynamics through strategic coalition building, countering traditional identity politics, making a strategic shift towards the aspirational voter blocs of youth and women, maintaining a messaging of governance and development and ensuring ground-level mobilisation through welfare measures -- especially, delivery-based direct cash transfers to assure voter loyalty.

In his victory speech at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi on Friday night, Prime Minister Narendra Modi interpreted the Bihar verdict as a springboard for the BJP’s electoral performance in other states. The accusation against the Rashtriya Janata Dal of “jungle raj” in Bihar was redirected against the incumbent Trinamul Congress government in West Bengal as well. In West Bengal, the BJP is banking not only on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls for “cleaning” them up but also on women and youth voters, hoping to replicate the success of the M-Y (Mahila-Youth) formula in Bihar.

Of the other election-going states in 2026, Tamil Nadu may prove to be relatively tougher terrain for the BJP. The party may reinvigorate its alliance with the AIADMK and also bring other small caste-based parties under its alliance tent. But the direct benefit schemes for women and other welfare schemes that were successful in Bihar may not bring the same dividends. Here the DMK will have a significant advantage as they control the levers of government and have a proven record of converting policy into welfare delivery (just as Nitish Kumar did in Bihar with the Jeevika Didi scheme).

In Kerala too, the BJP may face the same adversity because the incumbent advantage is structural and politically potent. In Assam, however, the BJP has the incumbent’s advantage. There, it may follow its Bihar policy of coalitions first -- tighter and wider alliances with smaller parties, “clean” electoral rolls and focus on women and youth.

The strategic lessons learnt by the BJP from the Bihar election in the run-up to the 2026 Assembly elections are clear: use the narrative of battles between “development versus dynasty” and “aspiration versus appeasement”; target and intensify outreach to first-time voters, women, and welfare beneficiaries; and engineer alliances through early coalition building. It now has a well-crafted and proven electoral strategy up its sleeve.

The message for the Opposition parties is also clear.

Despite the fact that the RJD emerged with the largest vote share, it could not convert it into seats because of poor seat-sharing and vote-splitting. Its reactive messaging was no match for the cohesive narrative of the NDA. And its over-reliance on legacy vote banks (Muslim-Yadav) was effectively countered by the disciplined, narrative-driven campaign of the NDA backed by welfare delivery and a wider caste-coalition.

Most importantly, for the Congress, its “Vote Chori” narrative is likely to be seen as grievance-driven and defensive. Could it be that the voters were not indifferent to the issue of electoral fairness but saw it as inadequately substantiated and disconnected from their lived reality? Perhaps the most important lesson that the Opposition can take home for future elections is that just a bundle of accusations will not win elections. It must pivot away from reactive allegations to proactive and people-first messaging.

Although Rahul Gandhi travelled 1,300 km in his “Vote Adhikar Yatra”, covering 25 districts and 110 constituencies, the strike rate of the party was less than 10 per cent -- six out of 61 seats contested. Probably the party’s “Vote Chori” pitch was disconnected from the voters’ concerns. Repeating the same grievance henceforth may be perceived by voters as excuse-making.

The Bihar verdict will also intensify scrutiny of Rahul Gandhi’s leadership role in the party and of the Congress in the Opposition INDIA bloc. The party’s rout is widely seen as leadership failure. Rahul Gandhi’s critics have pointed to both strategic missteps by his advisers and a broader failure of political judgment and accountability.

He was also absent during the final phase of the campaign, with rumours claiming that he was travelling abroad. This further fuelled the charge that he is not a serious politician and lacks accountability and visibility at critical moments.

Rahul Gandhi’s advisers have come under attack for reportedly ignoring the feedback from the ground, encouraging him to push a grievance-based narrative. They are being accused of being tone-deaf to Bihar’s local realities.

Unless the Congress overhauls both its leadership style and strategic apparatus, it risks further marginalisation. The Bihar verdict has already triggered calls for reconsidering the Congress’ leadership role in the INDIA bloc. Its repeated poor performance and organisational fragility will prompt partners to argue that leadership must now be assumed by parties with better electoral records.

While it is true that it is the regional parties that are putting up a fight against the BJP’s electoral juggernaut in the states, the Congress may still have a role in checking the BJP nationally. However, for that the Congress will need strategic reinvention, humility in alliance building and grassroots regeneration.

While regional parties have a stronger momentum at present, the Congress with its national infrastructure, historical legitimacy and pockets of influence could still revitalise itself and be in a position to anchor a national Opposition. Instead of seeking primacy as the leader of the INDIA bloc, it may have to recast itself as a platform builder.

Even though the BJP’s dominance is real for now, the elections that lie ahead in 2026 and 2029 are still open. The Opposition has to become strategically agile and remain unified as scattering in panic will not help. If the Congress plays a supportive role rather than trying to dominate the Opposition alliance, then a challenge can still be mounted. No political party is unassailable, including the BJP.

The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi