It is evident that Islamabad has pursued a strategy of escalation since New Delhi responded with a cross-LoC “surgical strike” to hit terrorist targets on September 28-29 after a Pakistani terrorist unit killed Indian soldiers at Uri in Kashmir on September 18. India’s response on the diplomatic and military front has been even and firm, not unilaterally aggressive, except for this nation’s spectacularly successful move to isolate Pakistan among the Saarc countries, specifically on the issue of the use of terrorism as state policy.
This seems to have especially riled our western neighbour. Everything Islamabad has done since is to try and up the ante, giving the impression that it will seek to protect its “proxy warrior” assets, notwithstanding its denial of their presence.
The latest in the rising escalation was the apprehending of a Pakistani spy in New Delhi on Thursday. The man, an assistant grade staffer in the Pakistan high commission, first tried to pass himself off as an Indian on the basis of a fake Aadhaar card, but was subsequently forced to reveal his true identity as an ISI official. Interestingly, someone at his modest level had diplomatic accreditation, making him immune to arrest. This can only attest to his status as an intelligence official.
The spy was declared persona non grata and asked to leave the country. Islamabad took tit-for-tat action by the same evening, that was on expected lines. But Pakistan on Thursday also engaged in massive shelling of Indian Army posts across some half a dozen sectors in the Jammu region. Possibly, the only likely provocation — if it can be called that — might be the blasting of a more than a dozen Pakistani Rangers posts by the Border Security Force the preceding days as the former engaged in giving covering fire to terrorists attempting to infiltrate into J&K before the snows make such a venture difficult.
It may be said that several hundred Pakistani terrorists have already sneaked into the Valley, as per official data. This could mean a hot winter in Kashmir, which in turn could be suggestive of Pakistani forces keeping the Line of Control active in the coming months.
Some of this may be explained by internal developments in Pakistan. Cricketer-politician Imran Khan has threatened to mount a massive agitation against the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, possibly to facilitate probable moves for a coup. The recent Quetta police college attack will already have given the military some “justification” for a takeover, if one is ever needed in Pakistan.
India needs to crank up its international diplomacy in light of the impending uncertainties over Pakistan, not knowing what policy measures may be called for at short notice.