Gold price hits 22-month high

Weaker growth in China and Europe fuels rise; Fed rate hike decision to be key for metal.

With uncertainty in the global economy deepening, investors have placed their bets on the traditional safe haven gold, which made its price hit 22-month-high.

Standard gold (99.5 purity) rose by Rs 270 to finish at Rs 29,580 per 10 grams from last Friday’s closing value of Rs 29,300 — its strongest close since May 12, 2014.

Pure gold (99.9 purity) also climbed by a similar margin to end at Rs 29,720 per 10 grams as compared to Rs 29,450 earlier.

According to experts, the demand has increased because of an unabated buying spree from jewellery stockists and traders driven by highly bullish overseas sentiment.

In the global bullion market, gold edged towards a 13-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and lower European shares after Chinese trade data fuelled concerns about the state of global demand.

China’s February exports slumped 25.4 per cent from a year earlier while imports dropped by 13.8 per cent.

“Uncertainty about the global economy and investor risk aversion have been a supporting theme for gold this year,” said Carlo Alberto de Casa, ActivTrades’ chief analyst.

“The metal is challenging last week’s 13-month peak, while February’s high around $1,260 has become a strong technical support level.”

The next main market focus is Thursday’s policy review by the European Central Bank, followed by the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on March 15-16.

The ECB is expected to ease monetary policy, but investors are uncertain about how far it will go. The Fed lifted interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December.

Gold could test $1,300 an ounce, more than two per cent higher than its current level, if the Fed keeps rates on hold, said Daniel Ang, analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

“A lot of traders are trying to anticipate a ‘no rate hike’ scenario, causing a bit of an increase in gold,” Mr Ang said.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who has emerged as a leader of the central bank’s dovish faction, argued for patience with regard to interest rate rises. But Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer warned that inflation is showing signs of accelerating, words that policymakers often use when signalling a preference for raising rates.

Supporting bullion, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped slightly on Friday but stayed near the highest since September 2014 at 25.5 million ounces. Goldman Sachs is sticking to a near-term target of $1,100 for gold.

In India, silver (.999 fineness) zoomed by a whopping Rs 700 per kg to conclude at Rs 38,350 as against Rs 37,650 last weekend due to frantic speculative offtake coupled with steady industrial demand.

Meanwhile, the ongoing strike by jewellers entered its seventh straight day today against the Budget proposal to impose excise duty on jewellery.