Exim Bank Projects 4.5 PC Growth In Good Exports For Sept Qtr

The goods exports for the July-September quarter of FY26 is expected to grow to $108.1 billion from $103.2 billion in the same quarter of last year.

While non-oil exports are forecast to amount $ 92.1 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 5.2 per cent, during July-September quarter of FY26, non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount $ 82.7 billion, with a y-o-y growth of 2.3 per cent.

According to EXIM Bank, growth in India’s exports could be a result of base effect along with expected continued buoyancy in manufacturing activity supported by increased capacity utilization and congenial financial conditions, favourable prospects of current trade negotiations with several countries, and an expansionary monetary policy in India.

The outlook is, however, subject to risks of higher tariffs and global trade policy uncertainty affecting global demand, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions, it cautioned.

As per the estimates, the exports in the first half of the financial year could go up to $220.27 billion, 3.3 per cent higher than $213.22 billion in the same period last fiscal. In the first half of FY25, merchandise exports had recorded a marginal growth of 1 per cent.

In the April–June quarter of the current financial year exports rose only by 1.92 per cent to $112.17 billion.

EXIM Bank’s projections for the July-September quarter of FY25 at $111.7 billion was higher than the actual exports.