Opposition PM ‘face’ could wait till after LS polls

It’s not quite clear why DMK chief M.K. Stalin pushed for Congress president Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate of a combined Opposition in Chennai on Sunday in the presence of Mr Gandhi himself, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu. But the Congress has been level-headed in reiterating that the question of who the next leader of the country will be can only be a matter of discussion after the results of the next Lok Sabha election is known. This is a realistic — and mature — position that suggests itself, and was once again restated by senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad.

Perhaps — but this is by no means certain — Mr Stalin’s remarks worried several other senior Opposition figures to such a degree that they were a no-show at the swearing-in of the newly-elected Congress CMs of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, though they were expected. The key ones to give the formal ceremonies the miss were BSP supremo Mayawati, Samajwadi chief Akhilesh Yadav, both former CMs of UP, and West Bengal CM and Trinamul Congress boss Mamata Banerjee.

It was churlish on their part to not go, especially since news reports suggested they had accepted the Congress’ invitation to attend the oath-taking events. Their action has clearly impacted the chemistry generated in May in Bengaluru when the top Opposition figures were present at the swearing-in of Karnataka CM H.D. Kumaraswamy.

However, the actions of various Opposition leaders in relation to the Congress at this stage seems not too crucial. In some northern states, the Congress will be pitted one to one against the BJP, and the regional parties don’t really matter.

As in the recently-held Assembly polls, the BSP and SP in any case may once again try to play a tactical card that may help the BJP and hurt the Congress. In UP, where these parties can come together to defeat the BJP, they may not bother with the Congress. In the same way, in West Bengal, there may not be a tieup of Ms Banerjee’s TMC with the Congress.

It is reasonably well understood that the regional parties like the BSP, SP and TMC will be keen to ensure that the Congress doesn’t have too big a lead over them in numbers in the Lok Sabha election. It’s only if this calculation succeeds will one of them hope to be in the reckoning for PM by heading a coalition of regional forces. None of this may come to pass, but optimism is a natural part of politics.

The BJP faces alliance troubles of its own. The saffron party and the Congress are expected to take steps not to make prospective partners nervous.