Bhopinder Singh | How Imran shot himself in foot, and alienated all 3 power centres

There are three main power centres which decide who occupies the Prime Minister’s office in Islamabad’s Red Zone -- the military-led establishment, the United States and the Saudis-Gulf sheikhdoms. The Chinese, despite being big players in Pakistan, have no individual or partisan preferences, the Pakistani clergy is no monolithic set-up and the factor of popular perceptions in a democracy can always be “managed”.

In 2018, Imran Khan had the solid support of the “establishment”, while an indifferent Washington and Riyadh were mired in their own domestic turmoil. Imran was thus “selected”, as opposed to “elected”, with the acquiescence of these three power centres.

But Imran got so carried away with his own success that he brazenly tried to carve out a space for himself beyond the ropes afforded by the power trio. From appropriating the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan (after the humiliating abandonment by US troops), to meddling in the affairs of Rawalpindi’s GHQ, to even attempting to stitch an alternative “bloc” within the Ummah (Islamic world) -- all three power centres were miffed to an extent that they were willing to bring back the same forces they had ousted earlier.

Imran was literally pushed out, railing, ranting and mocking the so-called “neutrality” of Pakistan’s “establishment”, frantically waving the foreign conspiracy letter to the intense irritation of Washington. However, he was shrewd enough to avoid casting any aspersions on the silence of the powerful sheikhdoms (they didn’t intervene to save him, though they could have), as subliminal religiosity has always been his default position.

Providentially for Imran, his bequeathed legacy of patronised extremism and empty coffers has made most Pakistanis’ lives extremely precarious.

Unfortunately, as is usual in democracies, the illiterate and gullible masses no longer hold Imran accountable, and blame his successors.
Sensing an opening in Pakistani society’s current distress, Imran has upped the ante and started reasserting himself in popular imagination. The coalition government was firmly on the backfoot, and Imran trying to reclaim his relevance.

The wily Imran Khan realised that too much water had flowed under the bridge of his relationship with the “establishment”, especially with the appointment of his bete noire, Gen. Asim Munir, as Pakistan’s new Army chief. Ideally, Imran needs to protect his equation with the sheikhdoms and mend fences with Washington. That is exactly what he tried to do as he sheepishly confessed that it wasn’t Washington which was behind his ouster, but the “establishment”, and specifically former Army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa. But it needs much more than a U-turn to convince Americans of Imran’s sincerity as they have a far deeper appreciation of Pakistan’s dynamics, but Imran had no option but to retract and revise his spiel.

While Washington might be prepared to support Imran if there was no other alternative, amidst the expected societal dissonance following the IMF-led constraints and tax hikes, it would not easily change its views of him. In the short run, it might accept any option to ensure stability in a nuclear-armed country.
Things were seemingly rolling as per the plan and Imran made the expected, though uncomfortable, retraction about accusing the US and kept up the political rhetoric, knowing fully well that barring the “establishment”, the other two power centres were getting readdressed. But the penny dropped once again, as news of Imran using cuss words for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) surfaced. This could prove terribly costly for the delicately poised Imran, as there is some wounded history with MBS, and he is not known to forgive or forget easily.

The charm offensive by Imran Khan to personally chauffeur Mohammad bin Salman from the airport, while on a 2019 state visit to Islamabad, had almost got derailed by Imran’s misplaced confidence and assertion by 2020 itself.

Reportedly, Imran was offered MBS’ private plane to ferry him to the United States and back -- but the recklessly ambitious Imran started hobnobbing with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohammed in the US to initiate a rival “bloc” to challenge the Saudi-led domination within the Ummah. MBS was seething on hearing the news, and from his playbook of responses, he ordered his private jet back, thus ensuring that Imran Khan and his delegation had to return home on a commercial flight.

While that incident was hushed up, the Saudis did not loosen their purse strings to bail out Pakistan as generously as they did earlier, and when the time came to intervene on behalf of Imran to save his government, the Saudis tellingly kept quiet.

The surfacing of Imran’s latest gaffe will not sit well with MBS, whose penchant for settling scores is infamous. MBS had not shied away from coercing the resignation of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri and holding him hostage. In many ways, the sheikhdoms treat Pakistan like a minion state and are not likely to forget the affront anytime soon. The Pakistani “establishment” is well represented in Saudi Arabia with the presence of Gen. Raheel Sharif (former Army chief and head of the Riyadh-based IMCTC), as is the Sharif family with its commercial interests in the kingdom. Both will do their utmost to discredit Imran. With MBS in charge of Saudi Arabia and undue influence in the Gulf states, Imran has just shot himself out of the sheikhdoms’ favour.

With the “establishment” livid, Washington sceptical and the Gulf sheikhdoms now fuming, Imran has once again put himself in a spot. Despite public disenchantment with the Shehbaz Sharif government and traction towards Imran, the show is expected to get “managed” with credible leaks, legal wrangles and convictions. Imran Khan has no one to blame except himself and his verbosity and impetuousness.