Anita Anand | India, at 2047, as a developed nation: It’ll just be a pipedream

In August 2022, at the Independence Day speech from the ramparts of Delhi’s historic Red Fort, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that by 2047, the 100th anniversary of India’s independence from the British Crown, India would be a developed country. Towards this, he spelt out the “Panch Prans”, or Five Resolves, to reach this target.

The Five Resolves are cleanliness campaigns, vaccinations, electrical connections, the elimination of open defecation and solar energy; the New Education Policy is an example of “liberation from the concept of servitude”; women’s rights, gender equality, and India First are national emblems of solidarity and unity. Citizens must save power, practise chemical-free agriculture, and make the most of the available irrigation water.

What is a developed country? It is a sovereign state with a high Human Development Index (HDI) compared to other countries. It must have a technologically advanced infrastructure, and its economy must be highly developed.

The HDI, a measure developed by the United Nations, determines three dimensions of human development -- life expectancy, access to education and a decent standard of living. It is calculated by using four indicators -- life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and the Gross National Income per capita. The factors used to determine the level of economic development of a country include the HDI, income per capita, political stability, industrialisation, freedom and living standards of the general population, Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 2023, India ranks 132 out of 191 countries.

The higher the HDI the more prosperous the country. For a country to be developed, the rate of industrialisation and employment must be high and there must be less dependence on agriculture. The technological infrastructure should be high, matching the level of industrialisation. There must be a stable political environment, low or no corruption, and high level of respect to the country’s laws. A developed country has freedom for its citizens -- freedom to worship, marry, own property, and access to information. Good governance must ensure that corruption levels are low, transparency in running the government is high, and employment is based on merit and qualifications. The public has access to clean water and environment, affordable and quality housing and access to other social and economic amenities in the country like access to emergency services are fast.

While recognising all this doesn’t exist in India right now, according to the UNDP over the last decade, India has lifted a staggering 271 million out of multi-dimensional poverty, and is improving access to clean water, sanitation, and affordable clean energy. It has boosted access to social protection for vulnerable sections of society, especially during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, with a 9.8 per cent hike in the budgetary allocation to the social services sector in 2021-22 over 2020-21.

Who are the developed countries? Those ranking at the top of the HDI are Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Iceland, Germany, Sweden, Australia and the Netherlands. All these countries have small populations, are less diverse (this could be changing with migration) and have a somewhat long history of stability. India has just become the most populous country with 1.42 billion people. There is great diversity in languages, food preferences, religions, cultural practices and income. The World Inequality Report 2022 reports that 57 per cent of the national income is held by top 10 per cent and the bottom 50 per cent is 13 per cent.

Economic projections aside (and they are only projections), it is not clear how India can become a developed nation by 2047. There is increasing lawlessness, caste and religious violence, lowered standards of education and skills, high levels of corruption, little transparency and accountability and poor governance.

India has been a predominantly agrarian economy. The shift from the agrarian to industrial has been haphazard, creating a loss in livelihoods, resulting in large-scale migration to the cities. and taking a toll on the environment. To increase industrialisation, the policies adopted have run roughshod over tribal lands and minority concerns and violated the environment. According to the World Air Quality Report 2021, India is home to 63 of the 100 most polluted cities, with New Delhi named as the capital with the worst air quality in the world.

Environmental issues are a primary cause of disease, health issues and have a long-term livelihood impact. There is limited or no organised garbage collection, waste removal services or sewage treatment operations. Consumer waste goes into water bodies and cremation practices are allowed near major rivers. On the road to becoming a “developed nation”, forests and agricultural land have been degraded and water, mineral, forest, sand, and rocks have been depleted. This degradation of the environment has affected public health, loss of biodiversity, loss of resilience in ecosystems, and livelihood security for the poor.

Straddled between the old and the new, our minds have not been able to make the shifts needed to be a developed nation. The educational system doesn’t prepare young people for the twenty-first century. Our civic sense is poor, and we continue to perpetuate our beliefs and practices and discriminate based on caste, class, language and the colour of skin.

The Prime Minister’s Five Resolves have little that is new, and plenty that is old. They will not be able to move India into a developed nation. It is just a pipedream.

The writer is a development and communications consultant.