Russia will countenance an Assad exit, but not yet

Russia will countenance Syrian President Bashar al-Assad leaving office, but only when it is confident a change of leader will not trigger a collapse of the Syrian government, sources familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking say.

Getting to that point could take years, and in the meantime Russia is prepared to keep backing Mr Assad, regardless of international pressure to jettison him, those sources said.

Such steadfast support is likely to further complicate already stalled peace talks with Mr Assad’s opponents and sour relations with Washington which wants the Syrian leader gone.

“Russia is not going to part company with (Mr) Assad until two things happen,” Sir Tony Brenton, Britain’s former ambassador to Russia, said.

“Firstly, until they are confident he won’t be replaced with some sort of Islamist takeover, and secondly until it can be guaranteed that their own position in Syria, their alliance and their military base, are sustainable going forward.”

The Kremlin, which intervened in 2015 to prop up Mr Assad, fears turmoil in his absence, thinks his regime too fragile for major change, and believes there’s much fighting to do before a transition, say multiple Russian foreign policy sources.

Russia and the United States are co-sponsors of peace talks between the warring sides in the Syria conflict. Those talks, currently on hold, have so far carefully skirted the question of whether a peace deal would require Mr Assad’s departure.